UFC · Track record
UFC: every call, graded
Winners, methods and rounds scored against what happened, event by event, with running totals. Only picks locked before the opening bell count in the headline; anything scored after the fact is marked BACKTEST and left out. The ledger only grows.
Winner picked
69/96 72%
the fighter the model favored won
Exact call
35/96 36%
winner AND method both right (6-way outcome)
Distance call
61/96 64%
went/didn't go the distance as predicted
Not counted above: 25 graded bouts had no prediction locked before the fight — an early card we scored retroactively, plus bouts a data fault left unlocked. Rebuilt with the same model but reading profiles the card itself has since filled in, they carry hindsight the locked picks do not; they appear per-event marked BACKTEST. 15 graded picks are from development cards (Contender Series) — locked before the fights like any other, but most of those fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the picks run largely on career records and priors. Their cards are graded below, separately. Every headline number on this page is locked picks from main UFC cards only.
Favorites vs. underdogs
Picked the betting favorite 70 times → 55 won
Picked the underdog 18 times → 9 won
Over/under rounds calls → 28 of 58 right
Anyone can win picking favorites. Underdog wins are what prove the model sees something the odds don't.
Do the percentages hold up?
When the model says 50–60% → won 20 of 36 (56%)
When the model says 60–70% → won 25 of 33 (76%)
When the model says 70%+ → won 24 of 27 (89%)
If the win rate roughly matches what the model claimed, the percentages are real. Still a small sample — judge after a few cards.
Is it running hot or cold?
Winner picks — model forecast 61.5, actual 69 (+7.5 vs forecast)
Exact calls — model forecast 34.8, actual 35 (+0.2 vs forecast)
Every pick carries a probability; add them up and you get the number of hits the model expects. Beating it is luck, not skill — the ledger is currently ahead of forecast, so expect the headline rate to fall toward 64% as the sample grows.
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05Winners 10/14Exact 5/14Distance 11/14Rounds 4/5
Method parlay: all 14 exact calls parlayed would have lost (9 of 14 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabia Sintes vs Michael Aljarouj | Fabia Sintes 61% | +120 | Fabia Sintes by DEC (36%)+360 | Fabia Sintes by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov | Losene Keita 65% | -355 | Losene Keita by KO/TKO (33%)-110 | Losene Keita by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann | Mario Pinto 75% | -340 | Mario Pinto by KO/TKO (49%)-127 | Mario Pinto by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas | Oumar Sy 66% | -235 | Oumar Sy by KO/TKO (34%)+500 | Modestas Bukauskas by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Pavel Andrusca vs Nathaniel Wood | Pavel Andrusca 64% | — | Pavel Andrusca by KO/TKO (31%) | Pavel Andrusca by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Felipe Lima vs Morgan Charrière | Felipe Lima 54% | -205 | Felipe Lima by DEC (40%)+135 | Felipe Lima by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Klaudia Syguła vs Nora Cornolle | Klaudia Syguła 63% | -115 | Klaudia Syguła by DEC (45%)+135 | Nora Cornolle by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro | Delphine Benouaich 63% | -132 | Delphine Benouaich by DEC (28%)+155 | Delphine Benouaich by SUB · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Matthieu Letho Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias | Luis Felipe Dias 57% | +113 | Luis Felipe Dias by KO/TKO (26%)+320 | Matthieu Letho Duclos by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano | Daniil Donchenko 76% | -230opened -210 | Daniil Donchenko by KO/TKO (41%)+123 | Daniil Donchenko by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek | Kurtis Campbell 70% | -380opened -340 | Kurtis Campbell by DEC (41%)+267 | Kurtis Campbell by SUB · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Nursulton Ruziboev vs Michael Page | Nursulton Ruziboev 53% | +180opened +164 | Nursulton Ruziboev by KO/TKO (25%)+950 | Michael Page by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Axel Sola vs Farés Ziam | Axel Sola 51% | +130opened +120 | Axel Sola by DEC (25%)+265 | Axel Sola by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Salahdine Parnasse vs Dan Hooker | Salahdine Parnasse 74% | -465opened -400 | Salahdine Parnasse by KO/TKO (48%)-129 | Salahdine Parnasse by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 2026-09-01Winners 4/5Exact 3/5Distance 4/5Rounds 3/5
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Method parlay: all 5 exact calls parlayed would have lost (2 of 5 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Darby vs Patrick Rivera | Adam Darby 64% | -395opened -360 | Adam Darby by SUB (25%)+165 | Adam Darby by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Modestino Rodrigues vs Brandon Holmes | Modestino Rodrigues 55% | +153opened +138 | Modestino Rodrigues by KO/TKO (47%)+175 | Modestino Rodrigues by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Silvestre Sanchez vs Liam McCracken | Silvestre Sanchez 57% | +112opened +150 | Silvestre Sanchez by KO/TKO (29%)+400 | Silvestre Sanchez by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Charlie Cleveland vs Gabriel Lourenço | Charlie Cleveland 50% | -204opened -157 | Charlie Cleveland by KO/TKO (36%)-110 | Gabriel Lourenço by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Hunter Smith vs Adam Livingston | Adam Livingston 53% | -183opened -120 | Adam Livingston by DEC (27%)+490 | Adam Livingston by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✗ |
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29Winners 10/13Exact 6/13Distance 7/13Rounds 2/5
Method parlay: all 13 exact calls parlayed would have lost (7 of 13 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson | Jack Jenkins 52% | +130 | Jack Jenkins by DEC (22%)+325 | Sean Woodson by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar | Andre Lima 62% | -245 | Andre Lima by DEC (33%)+300 | Andre Lima by SUB · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Julia Polastri vs Jingnan Xiong | Julia Polastri 65% | -225 | Julia Polastri by DEC (31%)-135 | Julia Polastri by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Kevin Borjas vs Rei Tsuruya | Rei Tsuruya 73% | -680 | Rei Tsuruya by SUB (31%)+115 | Rei Tsuruya by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Hector Santiago vs Lawrence Lui | Lawrence Lui 65% | -300 | Lawrence Lui by DEC (36%)+200 | Hector Santiago by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Nilson Rojas vs Bilal Hasan | Bilal Hasan 75% | -699 | Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO (53%)-135 | Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Francesco Nuzzi vs Xiao Long | Francesco Nuzzi 54% | +158 | Francesco Nuzzi by KO/TKO (25%)+550 | Francesco Nuzzi by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Cameron Nelson vs Ding Meng | Cameron Nelson 58% | +125 | Cameron Nelson by DEC (25%)+375 | Cameron Nelson by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✗ |
| Levi Rodrigues vs Ce Liu | Ce Liu 54% | -195 | Ce Liu by KO/TKO (43%) | Ce Liu by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Song Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov | Umar Nurmagomedov 72% | -595opened -450 | Umar Nurmagomedov by DEC (53%)-167 | Song Yadong by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan | Denise Gomes 58% | +133opened +125 | Denise Gomes by DEC (35%)+300 | Denise Gomes by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura | Kai Asakura 63% | -420 | Kai Asakura by DEC (30%)+400 | Kai Asakura by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Sumudaerji vs Alex Perez | Sumudaerji 57% | -201opened -195 | Sumudaerji by DEC (45%)+215 | Sumudaerji by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3 2026-08-25Winners 4/5Exact 2/5Distance 5/5Rounds 2/5
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Method parlay: all 5 exact calls parlayed would have lost (3 of 5 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Apodaca vs Bella Mir | Bella Mir 74% | -3300opened -1430 | Bella Mir by DEC (40%)+1200 | Alex Apodaca by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Guilherme Uriel vs Mario Piazzon | Guilherme Uriel 52% | -148 | Guilherme Uriel by KO/TKO (27%)+143 | Guilherme Uriel by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Sean Clancy Jr. vs Gary Balletto | Sean Clancy Jr. 72% | -1100opened -770 | Sean Clancy Jr. by KO/TKO (53%)-130 | Sean Clancy Jr. by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Alexis Miranda vs Ronald Humphrey | Ronald Humphrey 73% | -1100opened -675 | Ronald Humphrey by DEC (33%)+1300 | Ronald Humphrey by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Nick Galanti vs Carlos Petruzzella | Nick Galanti 58% | -215opened -205 | Nick Galanti by KO/TKO (29%)+420 | Nick Galanti by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22Winners 8/13Exact 3/13Distance 8/13Rounds 3/5
Method parlay: all 13 exact calls parlayed would have lost (10 of 13 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman | Anthony Wint 77% | -800 | Anthony Wint by KO/TKO (34%)-310 | Anthony Wint by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Jeisla Chaves vs Carli Judice | Carli Judice 65% | -575 | Carli Judice by DEC (29%)+130 | Carli Judice by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze | Reinier de Ridder 67% | -370 | Reinier de Ridder by DEC (29%)+130 | Reinier de Ridder by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Mason Jones vs MarQuel Mederos | Mason Jones 64% | -340 | Mason Jones by DEC (37%)+120 | MarQuel Mederos by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Ryan Kuse vs Marcio Barbosa | Marcio Barbosa 72% | -800 | Marcio Barbosa by KO/TKO (54%)-400 | Marcio Barbosa by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Jackson McVey vs Wes Schultz | Wes Schultz 53% | +156 | Wes Schultz by SUB (37%)+310 | Jackson McVey by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed | Shanelle Dyer 75% | -700 | Shanelle Dyer by KO/TKO (42%)+120 | Shanelle Dyer by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Stan Dorsainvil vs Gauge Young | Stan Dorsainvil 58% | — | Stan Dorsainvil by DEC (30%) | Stan Dorsainvil by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✗ |
| Nasrat Haqparast vs Chris Padilla | Chris Padilla 56% | -115opened -105 | Chris Padilla by KO/TKO (30%)+480 | Chris Padilla by SUB · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Lerryan Douglas vs Jamall Emmers | Lerryan Douglas 65% | -362opened -345 | Lerryan Douglas by KO/TKO (49%)-175 | Jamall Emmers by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez | Anthony Hernandez 57% | -195opened -168 | Anthony Hernandez by SUB (23%)+267 | Gregory Rodrigues by DEC · R5 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Vitor Petrino vs Serghei Spivac | Vitor Petrino 69% | -130opened -170 | Vitor Petrino by KO/TKO (41%)+215 | Vitor Petrino by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Shamil Gaziev vs Kennedy Nzechukwu | Kennedy Nzechukwu 60% | +110opened +102 | Kennedy Nzechukwu by KO/TKO (48%)+210 | Shamil Gaziev by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 2 2026-08-18Winners 2/5Exact 2/5Distance 4/5Rounds 3/5
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Method parlay: all 5 exact calls parlayed would have lost (3 of 5 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Namo Fazil vs Kaik Brito | Kaik Brito 51% | +155 | Kaik Brito by KO/TKO (44%)+340 | Kaik Brito by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Douglas Rodrigues vs Trent Miller | Douglas Rodrigues 69% | -476opened -300 | Douglas Rodrigues by KO/TKO (39%)-175 | Trent Miller by SUB · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Cristian Perez vs Logan Paxton | Cristian Perez 59% | -260opened -225 | Cristian Perez by KO/TKO (39%)+140 | Cristian Perez by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Mahamed Aly vs Alik Lorenz | Mahamed Aly 61% | -310opened -350 | Mahamed Aly by KO/TKO (50%)+155 | Alik Lorenz by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Taner Trembley vs Roman Puga | Taner Trembley 51% | +136opened -110 | Taner Trembley by KO/TKO (20%)+1000 | Roman Puga by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15Winners 5/12Exact 3/12Distance 7/12Rounds 2/4
Method parlay: all 12 exact calls parlayed would have lost (9 of 12 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Álvarez vs Chidi Njokuani | Joel Álvarez 59% | — | Joel Álvarez by KO/TKO (32%) | Chidi Njokuani by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Esteban Ribovics vs Edson Barboza | Esteban Ribovics 74% | -700 | Esteban Ribovics by DEC (35%)+330 | Esteban Ribovics by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Eric McConico vs Donte Johnson | Donte Johnson 80% | -305 | Donte Johnson by KO/TKO (64%)-105 | Donte Johnson by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Tresean Gore vs Vicente Luque | Vicente Luque 52% | -102 | Vicente Luque by DEC (23%)+470 | Tresean Gore by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Eduardo Chapolin vs Charles Johnson | Eduardo Chapolin 60% | — | Eduardo Chapolin by DEC (38%) | Charles Johnson by SUB · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias | Lucas Fernando 63% | -280 | Lucas Fernando by KO/TKO (44%)+120 | Lucas Fernando by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Ramiz Brahimaj vs Neil Magny | Ramiz Brahimaj 69% | -145 | Ramiz Brahimaj by SUB (46%)+150 | Neil Magny by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Myktybek Orolbai vs Jeremiah Wells | Myktybek Orolbai 78% | -1100 | Myktybek Orolbai by DEC (41%)+230 | Jeremiah Wells by SUB · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Ian Machado Garry vs Islam Makhachev | Islam Makhachev 59% | -325opened -345 | Islam Makhachev by DEC (27%)+160 | Islam Makhachev by DEC · R5 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Gillian Robertson vs Mackenzie Dern | Gillian Robertson 51% | +203opened +180 | Gillian Robertson by DEC (33%)+310 | Mackenzie Dern by DEC · R5 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus | Mansur Abdul-Malik 69% | -650 | Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO (36%)-110 | Dustin Stoltzfus by SUB · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Kauê Fernandes vs Jalin Turner | Jalin Turner 51% | -110opened -150 | Jalin Turner by DEC (21%)+750 | Jalin Turner by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 1 2026-08-11Winners 0/0Exact 0/0Distance 0/0
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
5 of these 5 bouts had no pick locked before the fight. They are marked BACKTEST below and are excluded from the totals above.
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Adams vs Anthony WintBACKTEST | Anthony Wint 71% | -1163 | Anthony Wint by KO/TKO (47%) | Anthony Wint by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Fabrizio Escarrega vs Abe AlsaghirBACKTEST | Abe Alsaghir 54% | +115 | Abe Alsaghir by KO/TKO (29%) | Abe Alsaghir by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Mridul Saikia vs Bilal HasanBACKTEST | Bilal Hasan 75% | -2941 | Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO (47%) | Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Ananias Mulumba vs Tom PagliaruloBACKTEST | Tom Pagliarulo 53% | +135 | Tom Pagliarulo by KO/TKO (31%) | Tom Pagliarulo by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Jon Kunneman vs Joe KropschotBACKTEST | Jon Kunneman 57% | -202 | Jon Kunneman by SUB (29%) | Joe Kropschot by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08Winners 5/6Exact 2/6Distance 4/6Rounds 1/2
6 of these 12 bouts had no pick locked before the fight. They are marked BACKTEST below and are excluded from the totals above.
Method parlay: all 6 exact calls parlayed would have lost (4 of 6 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Montanha vs Louie SutherlandBACKTEST | Louie Sutherland 52% | +189 | Louie Sutherland by DEC (27%) | José Montanha by SUB · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Richie Miranda vs Manoel SousaBACKTEST | Manoel Sousa 61% | -300 | Manoel Sousa by DEC (27%) | Manoel Sousa by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Ravena Oliveira vs Juliana MillerBACKTEST | Juliana Miller 60% | -300 | Juliana Miller by DEC (25%) | Juliana Miller by SUB · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Carol Foro vs Gigi CanutoBACKTEST | Carol Foro 63% | -186 | Carol Foro by DEC (34%) | Carol Foro by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Yadier del Valle vs Darren ElkinsBACKTEST | Yadier del Valle 66% | — | Yadier del Valle by DEC (37%) | Yadier del Valle by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Gianni Vazquez vs Miles JohnsBACKTEST | Miles Johns 56% | -104 | Miles Johns by DEC (43%) | Miles Johns by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Billy Ray Goff vs Ty Miller | Ty Miller 62% | — | Ty Miller by DEC (33%) | Ty Miller by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Alexia Thainara vs Amanda Lemos | Alexia Thainara 76% | — | Alexia Thainara by DEC (41%) | Alexia Thainara by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Billy Quarantillo vs Diego Ferreira | Billy Quarantillo 55% | — | Billy Quarantillo by KO/TKO (33%) | Diego Ferreira by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Quillan Salkilld vs Mateusz Gamrot | Quillan Salkilld 59% | — | Quillan Salkilld by DEC (31%) | Quillan Salkilld by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Bruno Lopes vs Diyar Nurgozhay | Diyar Nurgozhay 62% | -143opened -150 | Diyar Nurgozhay by KO/TKO (45%)+125 | Diyar Nurgozhay by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Guilherme Pat vs Steven Asplund | Steven Asplund 60% | -270 | Steven Asplund by KO/TKO (33%)+150 | Steven Asplund by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01Winners 10/14Exact 5/14Distance 9/14Rounds 6/14
Method parlay: all 14 exact calls parlayed would have lost (9 of 14 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Vologdin vs Borislav Nikolic | Borislav Nikolic 56% | -186opened -178 | Borislav Nikolic by DEC (37%)+210 | Borislav Nikolic by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Alexander Poppeck vs Jovan Leka | Jovan Leka 61% | -250opened -223 | Jovan Leka by KO/TKO (34%)+280 | Jovan Leka by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Stephanie Luciano vs Marina Spasić | Stephanie Luciano 61% | -325 | Stephanie Luciano by DEC (36%)-120 | Stephanie Luciano by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Noah Gugnon vs Milos Janicic | Milos Janicic 50% | +100opened +108 | Milos Janicic by DEC (25%)+650 | Noah Gugnon by SUB · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Daniel Rodriguez vs Uroš Medić | Uroš Medić 68% | -355opened -298 | Uroš Medić by KO/TKO (45%)-240 | Uroš Medić by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Gilbert Urbina vs Vlasto Čepo | Vlasto Čepo 66% | -300opened -340 | Vlasto Čepo by KO/TKO (49%)-210 | Gilbert Urbina by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Marcin Tybura vs Aleksandar Rakic | Aleksandar Rakic 68% | -335opened -305 | Aleksandar Rakic by DEC (33%)+191 | Aleksandar Rakic by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✗ |
| Bogdan Grad vs Dennis Buzukja | Bogdan Grad 60% | -178opened -192 | Bogdan Grad by DEC (26%)+175 | Bogdan Grad by SUB · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Michael Oliveira vs Oban Elliott | Michael Oliveira 70% | -325opened -340 | Michael Oliveira by KO/TKO (51%)-127 | Michael Oliveira by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Hailey Cowan vs Nina Milošević | Nina Milošević 74% | -455opened -395 | Nina Milošević by DEC (34%)+163 | Nina Milošević by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rębecki | Mateusz Rębecki 73% | -450opened -355 | Mateusz Rębecki by DEC (36%)+230 | Mateusz Rębecki by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Robert Valentin vs Duško Todorović | Duško Todorović 56% | +150opened +110 | Duško Todorović by KO/TKO (34%)+410 | Robert Valentin by SUB · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Navajo Stirling vs Jan Blachowicz | Navajo Stirling 80% | -270opened -203 | Navajo Stirling by DEC (40%)+112 | Navajo Stirling by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Tofiq Musayev vs Ludovit Klein | Ludovit Klein 70% | -227opened -257 | Ludovit Klein by DEC (55%)+135 | Tofiq Musayev by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25Winners 12/12Exact 7/12Distance 9/12Rounds 5/11
Method parlay: all 12 exact calls parlayed would have lost (5 of 12 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul Hussein vs Cody Gibson | Abdul Hussein 81% | -456opened -490 | Abdul Hussein by SUB (46%)+185 | Abdul Hussein by SUB · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Muhammad Said vs Dustin Jacoby | Muhammad Said 67% | +172opened +156 | Muhammad Said by KO/TKO (34%)+400 | Muhammad Said by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev vs Abubakar Vagaev | Abubakar Vagaev 51% | -182opened -218 | Abubakar Vagaev by DEC (45%)-115 | Abubakar Vagaev by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Brendson Ribeiro vs Magomed Tuchalov | Magomed Tuchalov 80% | -733opened -590 | Magomed Tuchalov by KO/TKO (58%)-250 | Magomed Tuchalov by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Thomas Petersen vs Valter Walker | Valter Walker 62% | -170opened -270 | Valter Walker by KO/TKO (34%)+650 | Valter Walker by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Bogdan Guskov vs Magomed Ankalaev | Magomed Ankalaev 63% | -488opened -460 | Magomed Ankalaev by DEC (35%)+450 | Magomed Ankalaev by KO/TKO · R5 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Damian Rzepecki vs Magomed Zaynukov | Magomed Zaynukov 57% | -335 | Magomed Zaynukov by DEC (29%) | Magomed Zaynukov by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✗ |
| Ramazonbek Temirov vs Stephen Erceg | Ramazonbek Temirov 56% | -102opened +110 | Ramazonbek Temirov by DEC (28%) | Ramazonbek Temirov by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Sam Patterson vs Santiago Ponzinibbio | Sam Patterson 67% | -426opened -425 | Sam Patterson by KO/TKO (36%)+115 | Sam Patterson by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Tyrell Fortune vs Rizvan Kuniev | Rizvan Kuniev 60% | -278opened -275 | Rizvan Kuniev by KO/TKO (32%)+200 | Rizvan Kuniev by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev | Nurullo Aliev 75% | -222opened -150 | Nurullo Aliev by DEC (58%)+104 | Nurullo Aliev by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Axel Sola vs Ismael Bonfim | Axel Sola 71% | -170opened -200 | Axel Sola by KO/TKO (40%)+205 | Axel Sola by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18Winners 9/12Exact 4/12Distance 6/12Rounds 5/12
Method parlay: all 12 exact calls parlayed would have lost (8 of 12 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Anderson vs Ezra Elliott | Ezra Elliott 56% | +113opened +114 | Ezra Elliott by SUB (24%)+300 | Ezra Elliott by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Dione Barbosa vs Anna Melisano | Anna Melisano 59% | +488 | Anna Melisano by DEC (39%)+1050 | Dione Barbosa by SUB · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Alvin Hines vs RJ Harris | RJ Harris 73% | +108opened +120 | RJ Harris by DEC (29%)+525 | RJ Harris by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Jose Miguel Delgado vs Austin Bashi | Jose Miguel Delgado 52% | +126opened -120 | Jose Miguel Delgado by DEC (22%)+550 | Jose Miguel Delgado by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko | Seokhyeon Ko 51% | -156opened -200 | Seokhyeon Ko by KO/TKO (31%)+450 | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis | Dricus Du Plessis 61% | -194opened -258 | Dricus Du Plessis by SUB (25%)+1000 | Dricus Du Plessis by DEC · R5 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Christian Leroy Duncan vs Jared Cannonier | Christian Leroy Duncan 76% | -303opened -295 | Christian Leroy Duncan by KO/TKO (48%)+190 | Christian Leroy Duncan by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Mitch Ramirez vs Chase Hooper | Chase Hooper 81% | -335opened -300 | Chase Hooper by KO/TKO (29%)+360 | Chase Hooper by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Fatima Kline vs Tabatha Ricci | Fatima Kline 64% | -417opened -325 | Fatima Kline by DEC (39%)-170 | Fatima Kline by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Alberto Montes vs Tommy McMillen | Tommy McMillen 72% | -175opened -102 | Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO (32%)+285 | Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Felipe Franco vs Levi Rodrigues | Levi Rodrigues 51% | -144opened -180 | Levi Rodrigues by KO/TKO (23%)-108 | Felipe Franco by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Stewart Nicoll vs Alden Coria | Alden Coria 79% | -609opened -900 | Alden Coria by DEC (29%)+300 | Alden Coria by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✗ |
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11Winners 0/0Exact 0/0Distance 0/0
14 of these 14 bouts had no pick locked before the fight. They are marked BACKTEST below and are excluded from the totals above.
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farid Basharat vs John GarzaBACKTEST | Farid Basharat 76% | -620 | Farid Basharat by DEC (42%)+165 | Farid Basharat by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Mario Bautista vs Cory SandhagenBACKTEST | Mario Bautista 60% | +125 | Mario Bautista by DEC (34%)+175 | Mario Bautista by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Nikita Krylov vs Robert WhittakerBACKTEST | Nikita Krylov 67% | +120 | Nikita Krylov by KO/TKO (29%)+380 | Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Zach Reese vs Ryan GandraBACKTEST | Ryan Gandra 54% | -134 | Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO (31%)+106 | Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Lone'er Kavanagh vs Brandon RoyvalBACKTEST | Lone'er Kavanagh 56% | -215 | Lone'er Kavanagh by DEC (35%)+145 | Brandon Royval by SUB · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Conor McGregor vs Max HollowayBACKTEST | Max Holloway 60% | -280 | Max Holloway by KO/TKO (21%)-120 | Max Holloway by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Adrian Yanez vs Cody GarbrandtBACKTEST | Adrian Yanez 70% | -360 | Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO (42%)-115 | Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Terrance Mckinney vs King GreenBACKTEST | Terrance Mckinney 68% | +100 | Terrance Mckinney by KO/TKO (32%)+200 | King Green by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Wang Cong vs Tracy CortezBACKTEST | Wang Cong 56% | -115 | Wang Cong by DEC (27%)+190 | Wang Cong by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Alessandro Costa vs Cody DurdenBACKTEST | Alessandro Costa 63% | -218 | Alessandro Costa by SUB (23%)+380 | Alessandro Costa by SUB · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Benoit Saint-Denis vs Paddy PimblettBACKTEST | Benoit Saint-Denis 75% | -125 | Benoit Saint-Denis by SUB (37%)+330 | Paddy Pimblett by SUB · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Cesar Almeida vs Damian PinasBACKTEST | Damian Pinas 73% | -235 | Damian Pinas by KO/TKO (37%)+280 | Damian Pinas by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Kai Kamaka vs Luke RileyBACKTEST | Luke Riley 64% | -220 | Luke Riley by KO/TKO (35%)+225 | Luke Riley by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✗ |
| Elisha Ellison vs Gable StevesonBACKTEST | Gable Steveson 54% | -1350 | Gable Steveson by KO/TKO (28%)-225 | Gable Steveson by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
Scored automatically the morning after each card. “Exact” requires the single most likely outcome (winner + method) to hit — a 6-way call where always guessing favorite-by-decision runs ~26%. Method-of-victory prices shown beside the top outcome are sourced from published sportsbook props (our odds feed carries no MMA method markets); prices marked “R1 KO” or “UD” are the nearest documented market variant. Hold-out results, not a promise of future returns. Model is experimental; informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
UFC grades the morning after each card. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.