UFC · Track record
UFC: every call, graded
Every winner call scored against what happened, event by event, with the method calls beside it. Only picks locked before their card segment started count; anything scored after the fact is marked BACKTEST and left out. The ledger only grows.
About this page
Every winner call scored against what happened, event by event, with the method calls beside it. Only picks locked before their card segment started count; anything scored after the fact is marked BACKTEST and left out. The ledger only grows.
Last graded
Winners calledOnly picks locked before the start count. A pick made later, or priced after the fact, never enters it.
Locked before the start, graded afterOur picks
69%
99–45
Betting favorite
69%
99–45
The same 144 priced games, winners only. Where a game is priced our pick is built on the market's price, so the two mostly match; we claim no edge. When we took the other side: 8–8.
Every graded pick, priced or not
Won–lost
103–48
Win rateWhere the true win rate likely sits (90% range). Under 30 picks, too early to read.
68%
90% range 62–74%
Graded
151
picks
Expected winsThe sum of its stated win probabilities. If those are right, wins land in this range 9 times in 10.
96.9
90% range 87.4–106.4
Win rate 68%90% rangeIts probabilities said 64%
Won 103. Its stated probabilities expected 96.9 (90% range 87.4–106.4): inside that range, in line with its probabilities.
By method: model alone 69–31 (100), market-anchored 34–17 (51).
Expected vs actual winnersThe dashed line is the wins its own probabilities expected, shaded for luck's 90% band. Solid is what happened.
151 picks
model alone ← | → market-anchored
Pick 1 · Jul 18picks in the order the games started →Pick 151 · Oct 24
Won 103Expected 96.990% band 87.4–106.4
Dotted line, pick 100: the method changed. Before it the calls were the model alone; after it a priced game’s number follows the market’s price, so the stretches are not the same product.
The solid line ends inside the shaded band: the record is where honest probabilities would put it.
Show as a table
| After pick | Date | Won | Expected | 90% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jul 25 | 16 | 12.5 | 9.2–15.9 |
| 38 | Aug 1 | 31 | 24.8 | 20.1–29.5 |
| 57 | Aug 29 | 43 | 36.4 | 30.5–42.3 |
| 76 | Sep 12 | 56 | 48.4 | 41.6–55.1 |
| 94 | Sep 26 | 66 | 60.0 | 52.5–67.5 |
| 113 | Oct 3 | 81 | 73.1 | 65.0–81.3 |
| 132 | Oct 17 | 92 | 85.2 | 76.3–94.1 |
| 151 | Oct 24 | 103 | 96.9 | 87.4–106.4 |
When it said 70%, did it win 70%?Each lane is a confidence band. Calibrated means the dot lands in its gray band; the bar shows luck's range.
live
- Said 50–60%65% won 40 of 6290% range 54–74%
- Said 60–70%66% won 29 of 4490% range 54–76%
- Said 70–80%71% won 24 of 3490% range 57–82%
- Said 80–90%91% won 10 of 1190% range 68–98%
The band it statedLive win rate90% range
Live picks on main UFC cards, locked before their card segment started. Lanes with fewer than 10 graded picks are faded.
Not counted above: 33 picks made after their card segment started are not counted; they appear per-event marked AFTER START. 25 graded bouts had no prediction locked before the fight — an early card we scored retroactively, plus bouts a data fault left unlocked. Rebuilt with the same model but reading profiles the card itself has since filled in, they carry hindsight the locked picks do not; they appear per-event marked BACKTEST. 43 graded picks are from development cards (Contender Series) — locked before the fights like any other, but most of those fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the picks run largely on career records and priors. Their cards are graded below, separately. Every headline number on this page is locked picks from main UFC cards only.
Against the betting favoriteSame games, winners only. The favorite is the side with the shorter no-vig moneyline when the pick was locked.
144 priced games
Our pickon the games that had a price99–45 69%n 144
The betting favoritethe same games, no model99–45 69%n 144
When we picked the favorite91–37 71%n 128
When we took the other sidethe games we disagreed with the market8–8 50%n 16 · too early to read
Picks locked before Sept 28 are the model alone; since then a priced bout's win % is the market's no-vig price. 7 picks have no stored price and sit in none of these rows. Under 30 games a record is too early to read either way. Every pick, one row each →
Method callsHow each bout ends, graded against the probability the model gave its call. Not part of the winners record.
Winner + method53–98 35%n 151 · 29–42%
Distance call98–53 65%n 151 · 58–71%
Winner + method is a six-way call (either fighter by KO, submission or decision); always guessing the favorite by decision lands about 26%. The distance call is whether the bout reaches the judges.
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev 2026-10-24Winners9/14Exact5/14Distance11/14
Early prelims
Model
Iasmin Lucindo 78%-375
Iasmin Lucindo by DEC (58%)-140
Result
Iasmin Lucindo
by DEC · R3
Model
Kody Steele 58%-156
Kody Steele by KO/TKO (30%)+350
Result
Kody Steele
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Daniel Santos 51%-108
Daniel Santos by KO/TKO (25%)+380
Result
Daniel Santos
by DEC · R3
Model
Abubakar Vagaev 60%-155
Abubakar Vagaev by DEC (50%)+110
Result
Abubakar Vagaev
by DEC · R3
Model
Asaf Chopurov 83%-520
Asaf Chopurov by DEC (35%)+250
Result
Colby Thicknesse
by DEC · R3
Prelims
Model
Grant Dawson 51%-110
Grant Dawson by DEC (26%)+200
Result
Grant Dawson
by DEC · R3
Model
Abus Magomedov 51%-105
Abus Magomedov by DEC (28%)+350
Result
Abus Magomedov
by SUB · R1
Model
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 81%-455
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev by SUB (40%)+280
Result
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Azamat Murzakanov 65%-195
Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO (56%)-120
Result
Dominick Reyes
by KO/TKO · R1
Main card
Model
Aaron Pico 56%-118
Aaron Pico by DEC (21%)+310
Result
Aaron Pico
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Alexander Volkov 55%-126
Alexander Volkov by DEC (43%)+185
Result
Alexander Volkov
by DEC · R3
Model
Ramazan Temirov 50%-105
Ramazan Temirov by KO/TKO (32%)+200
Result
Lone'er Kavanagh
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Merab Dvalishvili 52%
Merab Dvalishvili by DEC (39%)
Result
Petr Yan
by DEC · R5
Movsar Evloev vs Alexander VolkanovskiMain event
Model
Movsar Evloev 51%-105
Movsar Evloev by DEC (36%)+150
Result
Alexander Volkanovski
by KO/TKO · R2
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 2026-10-17Winners7/13Exact5/13Distance9/13
Prelims
Model
Cody Chovancek 54%-120
Cody Chovancek by DEC (24%)+200
Result
SuYoung You
by SUB · R3
Model
Melissa Croden 75%-335
Melissa Croden by DEC (37%)+140
Result
Chelsea Chandler
by SUB · R1
Model
Steven Koslow 61%-165
Steven Koslow by SUB (56%)+150
Result
Steven Koslow
by SUB · R3
Model
Katlyn Cerminara 70%-250
Katlyn Cerminara by DEC (54%)-150
Result
Katlyn Cerminara
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Joel Faglier 54%-122
Joel Faglier by KO/TKO (24%)+410
Result
Joel Faglier
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Gilbert Urbina 55%
Gilbert Urbina by DEC (27%)
Result
Gilbert Urbina
by SUB · R1
Model
Jhonata Diniz 65%-205
Jhonata Diniz by DEC (35%)+390
Result
Tanner Boser
by KO/TKO · R3
Main card
Model
Mandel Nallo 71%-275
Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO (50%)-140
Result
Mandel Nallo
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Louis Jourdain 60%-166
Louis Jourdain by DEC (29%)+230
Result
Timmy Cuamba
by SUB · R2
Model
Kyle Daukaus 65%-195
Kyle Daukaus by DEC (24%)+420
Result
Marc-Andre Barriault
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Cristian Pérez 75%-290
Cristian Pérez by KO/TKO (55%)+100
Result
Cristian Pérez
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Erin Blanchfield 75%-325
Erin Blanchfield by DEC (52%)-140
Result
Jasmine Jasudavicius
by DEC · R3
Joaquin Buckley vs Mike MalottMain event
Model
Mike Malott 54%-125
Mike Malott by KO/TKO (27%)+380
Result
Mike Malott
by KO/TKO · R2
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10 2026-10-13Winners3/5Exact3/5Distance2/5
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Model
Jason Asher 64%-200
Jason Asher by KO/TKO (30%)+125
Result
Greg Foster
by DEC · R3
Model
Douglas da Lapa 59%-150
Douglas da Lapa by KO/TKO (34%)-105
Result
Douglas da Lapa
by KO/TKO · R3
Model
Luis Francischinelli 69%-250
Luis Francischinelli by KO/TKO (51%)-185
Result
Luis Francischinelli
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Smilla Sundell 82%-510
Smilla Sundell by DEC (40%)+200
Result
Smilla Sundell
by DEC · R3
Erick Visconde vs Ilias BulaidMain event
Model
Ilias Bulaid 55%-130
Ilias Bulaid by DEC (24%)+320
Result
Erick Visconde
by DEC · R3
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan 2026-10-10Winners6/11Exact3/11Distance7/11
Prelims
Model
Alice Pereira 55%-130
Alice Pereira by DEC (23%)+170
Result
Alice Pereira
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
RJ Harris 76%-370
RJ Harris by DEC (29%)+500
Result
Allen Frye Jr.
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Felipe Franco 77%-370
Felipe Franco by KO/TKO (42%)+180
Result
Brendson Ribeiro
by SUB · R1
Model
Leon Shahbazyan 56%-135
Leon Shahbazyan by SUB (40%)+160
Result
Niko Price
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Francisco Prado 59%-145
Francisco Prado by KO/TKO (33%)+200
Result
Francisco Prado
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Julius Walker 73%-300
Julius Walker by KO/TKO (27%)-115
Result
Julius Walker
by KO/TKO · R2
Main card
Model
Malcolm Wellmaker 64%-198
Malcolm Wellmaker by DEC (30%)+310
Result
Otari Tanzilovi
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Andre Fili 57%-142
Andre Fili by DEC (38%)+225
Result
Andre Fili
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Loopy Godínez 69%-235
Loopy Godínez by DEC (48%)-125
Result
Loopy Godínez
by DEC · R3
Model
Matheus Camilo 63%-190
Matheus Camilo by KO/TKO (25%)+150
Result
Jai Herbert
by DEC · R3
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Brendan AllenMain event
Model
Brendan Allen 51%-115
Brendan Allen by DEC (31%)+280
Result
Brendan Allen
by SUB · R5
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 9 2026-10-06Winners3/5Exact2/5Distance4/5
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Model
Summer Onley 59%-155
Summer Onley by DEC (29%)+270
Result
Alivia Bierley
by DEC · R3
Model
Mateus Soares 81%-490
Mateus Soares by KO/TKO (37%)-140
Result
Mateus Soares
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Roque Conceição 51%-108
Roque Conceição by KO/TKO (24%)+220
Result
Roque Conceição
by SUB · R1
Model
Salhahuddin Everett 54%
Salhahuddin Everett by KO/TKO (20%)+130
Result
Salhahuddin Everett
by KO/TKO · R1
Nell Ariano vs Preston LaGrangeMain event
Model
Nell Ariano 82%-550
Nell Ariano by KO/TKO (57%)-250
Result
Preston LaGrange
by KO/TKO · R1
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang 2026-10-03Winners12/13Exact9/13Distance9/13
Early prelims
Model
Eric Nolan 67%-225
Eric Nolan by KO/TKO (31%)+135
Result
Eric Nolan
by KO/TKO · R3
Model
Ismail Naurdiev 55%-130
Ismail Naurdiev by DEC (34%)+185
Result
Ismail Naurdiev
by DEC · R3
Model
Alexander Hernandez 70%-260
Alexander Hernandez by DEC (35%)+200
Result
Alexander Hernandez
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Jacobe Smith 89%-1000
Jacobe Smith by KO/TKO (48%)-290
Result
Jacobe Smith
by KO/TKO · R1
Prelims
Model
Anthony Wint 82%-550
Anthony Wint by KO/TKO (46%)-110
Result
Anthony Wint
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Marcus McGhee 53%-500
Marcus McGhee by KO/TKO (27%)+155
Result
Marcus McGhee
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Damian Pinas 83%-590
Damian Pinas by KO/TKO (51%)-175
Result
Damian Pinas
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Imanol Rodriguez 56%-135
Imanol Rodriguez by DEC (28%)+260
Result
Imanol Rodriguez
by KO/TKO · R1
Main card
Model
Ateba Gautier 69%-240
Ateba Gautier by DEC (38%)+340
Result
Roman Kopylov
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Roberto Soldić 67%-210
Roberto Soldić by DEC (37%)+650
Result
Roberto Soldić
by DEC · R3
Model
Esteban Ribovics 64%-195
Esteban Ribovics by KO/TKO (35%)+125
Result
Esteban Ribovics
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Payton Talbott 86%-700
Payton Talbott by DEC (37%)+165
Result
Payton Talbott
by KO/TKO · R1
Wang Cong vs Natalia SilvaMain event
Model
Natalia Silva 65%-198
Natalia Silva by DEC (41%)+100
Result
Natalia Silva
by DEC · R5
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 8 2026-09-29Winners3/3Exact1/3Distance3/3
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Model
Aieza Bertolso 81%-470
Aieza Bertolso by DEC (38%)+275
Result
Aieza Bertolso
by SUB · R1
Model
Ian Escuza 53%-122
Ian Escuza by KO/TKO (22%)+195
Result
Ian Escuza
by KO/TKO · R1
Loai Abushaar vs George StainesMain event
Model
George Staines 76%-350
George Staines by DEC (39%)+250
Result
George Staines
by KO/TKO · R1
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos 2026-09-26Winners6/12Exact3/12Distance7/12
Prelims
Model
Yazmin Jauregui 76%
Yazmin Jauregui by DEC (55%)-115
Result
Yazmin Jauregui
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
John Castaneda 62%
John Castaneda by DEC (39%)-175
Result
Alatengheili
by DEC · R3
Model
Montel Jackson 67%
Montel Jackson by DEC (40%)
Result
Montel Jackson
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Elves Brener 56%
Elves Brener by KO/TKO (27%)
Result
Elves Brener
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Rodolfo Bellato 57%
Rodolfo Bellato by KO/TKO (29%)
Result
Christian Edwards
by KO/TKO · R3
Model
Robert Bryczek 51%
Robert Bryczek by KO/TKO (36%)+250
Result
Rodolfo Vieira
by DEC · R3
Model
Rinya Nakamura 78%
Rinya Nakamura by KO/TKO (36%)
Result
Brady Hiestand
by SUB · R2
Main card
Model
Melissa Amaya 59%+185
Melissa Amaya by DEC (41%)+325
Result
Tina Black
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Mehemmedeli Osmanli 62%
Mehemmedeli Osmanli by DEC (28%)+200
Result
Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu
by — · R1
Model
Luis Hernandez 78%-235
Luis Hernandez by SUB (42%)
Result
Luis Hernandez
by SUB · R1
Model
Ailin Perez 67%
Ailin Perez by DEC (44%)-110
Result
Ailin Perez
by DEC · R3
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni BarcelosMain event
Model
Raul Rosas Jr. 63%-135
Raul Rosas Jr. by DEC (34%)
Result
Raul Rosas Jr.
by KO/TKO · R5
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 7 2026-09-22Winners4/5Exact0/5Distance2/5
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Model
Emilio Quissua 55%
Emilio Quissua by KO/TKO (27%)+290
Result
Damian Piwowarczyk
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Piero Guaylupo 53%
Piero Guaylupo by KO/TKO (36%)+185
Result
Piero Guaylupo
by DEC · R3
Model
Marcos Degli 64%
Marcos Degli by KO/TKO (33%)-145
Result
Marcos Degli
by SUB · R3
Model
Alvi Dasuyev 55%-240
Alvi Dasuyev by KO/TKO (29%)+155
Result
Alvi Dasuyev
by DEC · R3
Theo Haig vs Norbert Növényi Jr.Main event
Model
Norbert Növényi Jr. 69%-425
Norbert Növényi Jr. by KO/TKO (41%)-185
Result
Norbert Növényi Jr.
by DEC · R3
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19Winners7/12Exact3/12Distance6/12
Early prelims
Model
Joanderson Brito 71%
Joanderson Brito by DEC (28%)
Result
Joanderson Brito
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Casey O'Neill 56%
Casey O'Neill by DEC (37%)
Result
Casey O'Neill
by SUB · R1
Model
Edmen Shahbazyan 54%
Edmen Shahbazyan by KO/TKO (44%)
Result
Edmen Shahbazyan
by DEC · R3
Prelims
Model
Ryan Gandra 82%
Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO (69%)-250
Result
Ryan Gandra
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
JooSang Yoo 61%-166
JooSang Yoo by DEC (43%)
Result
Michael Aswell
by DEC · R3
Model
Robelis Despaigne 68%
Robelis Despaigne by KO/TKO (48%)-280
Result
Robelis Despaigne
by DEC · R3
Model
Charles Jourdain 63%
Charles Jourdain by DEC (44%)
Result
Marlon Vera
by KO/TKO · R3
Main card
Model
Iwo Baraniewski 76%-250
Iwo Baraniewski by KO/TKO (63%)
Result
Alonzo Menifield
by DEC · R3
Model
Gable Steveson 80%
Gable Steveson by KO/TKO (66%)
Result
Sean Sharaf
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Dooho Choi 74%
Dooho Choi by KO/TKO (50%)
Result
Patricio Pitbull
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Arman Tsarukyan 59%
Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO (21%)
Result
Arman Tsarukyan
by KO/TKO · R1
Joshua Van vs Alexandre PantojaMain event
Model
Joshua Van 54%
Joshua Van by DEC (34%)
Result
Joshua Van
by DEC · R5
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 6 2026-09-15Winners4/5Exact3/5Distance5/5
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Model
Tyshawn Williams 58%
Tyshawn Williams by DEC (38%)
Result
Tyshawn Williams
by DEC · R3
Model
Luis Hernandez 52%+136
Luis Hernandez by KO/TKO (27%)
Result
Luis Hernandez
by SUB · R2
Model
Akbar Abdullaev 77%
Akbar Abdullaev by KO/TKO (52%)
Result
Akbar Abdullaev
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Igor Cavalcanti 57%
Igor Cavalcanti by KO/TKO (45%)
Result
Igor Cavalcanti
by KO/TKO · R1
Mayton Perea vs Zevan HuntMain event
Model
Zevan Hunt 57%+100
Zevan Hunt by SUB (26%)
Result
Mayton Perea
by KO/TKO · R1
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12Winners8/13Exact3/13Distance8/13
Prelims
Model
Regina Tarin 64%
Regina Tarin by DEC (34%)
Result
Regina Tarin
by DEC · R3
Model
Sean King 56%-190
Sean King by DEC (24%)
Result
Sean King
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Rongzhu 51%
Rongzhu by DEC (29%)+135
Result
Rongzhu
by DEC · R3
Model
Tommy Gantt 81%
Tommy Gantt by KO/TKO (44%)
Result
Tommy Gantt
by SUB · R3
Model
Yousri Belgaroui 74%
Yousri Belgaroui by DEC (37%)
Result
Yousri Belgaroui
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Ignacio Bahamondes 71%
Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO (40%)
Result
Ignacio Bahamondes
by DEC · R3
Model
Édgar Cháirez 63%
Édgar Cháirez by SUB (40%)+230
Result
Tim Elliott
by DEC · R3
Main card
Model
David Martinez 77%-425
David Martinez by DEC (52%)
Result
David Martinez
by DEC · R3
Model
Waldo Cortes Acosta 55%
Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (48%)
Result
Curtis Blaydes
by DEC · R3
Model
Manon Fiorot 59%-270
Manon Fiorot by DEC (44%)
Result
Alexa Grasso
by DEC · R3
Model
Tommy McMillen 58%-155
Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO (23%)
Result
Tommy McMillen
by DEC · R3
Model
Joseph Morales 54%
Joseph Morales by DEC (38%)+165
Result
Brandon Moreno
by DEC · R3
Jose Miguel Delgado vs Jean SilvaMain event
Model
Jose Miguel Delgado 56%
Jose Miguel Delgado by KO/TKO (26%)
Result
Jean Silva
by SUB · R3
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 5 2026-09-08Winners5/5Exact4/5Distance3/5
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Model
Christian Natividad 59%-300
Christian Natividad by DEC (31%)
Result
Christian Natividad
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Apollo Gomes 59%
Apollo Gomes by DEC (28%)
Result
Apollo Gomes
by DEC · R3
Model
Martin Kozák 72%
Martin Kozák by KO/TKO (52%)
Result
Martin Kozák
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Isaac Moreno 52%-120
Isaac Moreno by DEC (32%)+330
Result
Isaac Moreno
by DEC · R3
Arlind Berisha vs Quentin PasleyMain event
Model
Quentin Pasley 55%+130
Quentin Pasley by KO/TKO (44%)+220
Result
Quentin Pasley
by KO/TKO · R1
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05Winners4/5Exact1/5Distance3/5
9 of these 14 picks were made after their card segment started. They are marked AFTER START below and are excluded from the totals above.
Prelims
Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia MontenegroAFTER START
Model
Delphine Benouaich 63%-132
Delphine Benouaich by DEC (28%)
Result
Delphine Benouaich
by SUB · R2
Matthieu Letho Duclos vs Luis Felipe DiasAFTER START
Model
Luis Felipe Dias 57%
Luis Felipe Dias by KO/TKO (26%)
Result
Matthieu Letho Duclos
by KO/TKO · R1
Klaudia Syguła vs Nora CornolleAFTER START
Model
Klaudia Syguła 63%
Klaudia Syguła by DEC (45%)
Result
Nora Cornolle
by DEC · R3
Fabia Sintes vs Michael AljaroujAFTER START
Model
Fabia Sintes 61%+120
Fabia Sintes by DEC (36%)+360
Result
Fabia Sintes
by DEC · R3
Pavel Andrusca vs Nathaniel WoodAFTER START
Model
Pavel Andrusca 64%
Pavel Andrusca by KO/TKO (31%)
Result
Pavel Andrusca
by DEC · R3
Oumar Sy vs Modestas BukauskasAFTER START
Model
Oumar Sy 66%-235
Oumar Sy by KO/TKO (34%)
Result
Modestas Bukauskas
by KO/TKO · R2
Mario Pinto vs Ryan SpannAFTER START
Model
Mario Pinto 75%
Mario Pinto by KO/TKO (49%)
Result
Mario Pinto
by KO/TKO · R2
Felipe Lima vs Morgan CharrièreAFTER START
Model
Felipe Lima 54%
Felipe Lima by DEC (40%)
Result
Felipe Lima
by DEC · R3
Main card
Losene Keita vs Muhammad NaimovAFTER START
Model
Losene Keita 65%
Losene Keita by KO/TKO (33%)-110
Result
Losene Keita
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Kurtis Campbell 70%
Kurtis Campbell by DEC (41%)
Result
Kurtis Campbell
by SUB · R3
Model
Daniil Donchenko 76%
Daniil Donchenko by KO/TKO (41%)
Result
Daniil Donchenko
by DEC · R3
Model
Nursulton Ruziboev 53%+180
Nursulton Ruziboev by KO/TKO (25%)+950
Result
Michael Page
by DEC · R3
Model
Axel Sola 51%+130
Axel Sola by DEC (25%)
Result
Axel Sola
by KO/TKO · R1
Salahdine Parnasse vs Dan HookerMain event
Model
Salahdine Parnasse 74%
Salahdine Parnasse by KO/TKO (48%)
Result
Salahdine Parnasse
by KO/TKO · R1
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 2026-09-01Winners4/5Exact3/5Distance4/5
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Model
Adam Livingston 53%
Adam Livingston by DEC (27%)+490
Result
Adam Livingston
by DEC · R3
Model
Charlie Cleveland 50%
Charlie Cleveland by KO/TKO (36%)-110
Result
Gabriel Lorenço
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Silvestre Sanchez 57%
Silvestre Sanchez by KO/TKO (29%)
Result
Silvestre Sanchez
by KO/TKO · R3
Model
Modestino Rodrigues 55%
Modestino Rodrigues by KO/TKO (47%)
Result
Modestino Rodrigues
by KO/TKO · R1
Adam Darby vs Patrick RiveraMain event
Model
Adam Darby 64%
Adam Darby by SUB (25%)+165
Result
Adam Darby
by KO/TKO · R3
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29Winners4/5Exact2/5Distance3/5
8 of these 13 picks were made after their card segment started. They are marked AFTER START below and are excluded from the totals above.
Prelims
Cameron Nelson vs Ding MengAFTER START
Model
Cameron Nelson 58%+125
Cameron Nelson by DEC (25%)
Result
Cameron Nelson
by DEC · R3
Julia Polastri vs Jingnan XiongAFTER START
Model
Julia Polastri 65%
Julia Polastri by DEC (31%)-135
Result
Julia Polastri
by KO/TKO · R1
Hector Santiago vs Lawrence LuiAFTER START
Model
Lawrence Lui 65%-300
Lawrence Lui by DEC (36%)
Result
Hector Santiago
by KO/TKO · R2
Francesco Nuzzi vs Xiao LongAFTER START
Model
Francesco Nuzzi 54%+158
Francesco Nuzzi by KO/TKO (25%)+550
Result
Francesco Nuzzi
by KO/TKO · R1
Jack Jenkins vs Sean WoodsonAFTER START
Model
Jack Jenkins 52%+130
Jack Jenkins by DEC (22%)
Result
Sean Woodson
by DEC · R3
Kevin Borjas vs Rei TsuruyaAFTER START
Model
Rei Tsuruya 73%
Rei Tsuruya by SUB (31%)
Result
Rei Tsuruya
by SUB · R1
Andre Lima vs Namsrai BatbayarAFTER START
Model
Andre Lima 62%
Andre Lima by DEC (33%)
Result
Andre Lima
by SUB · R3
Main card
Nilson Rojas vs Bilal HasanAFTER START
Model
Bilal Hasan 75%
Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO (53%)
Result
Bilal Hasan
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Ce Liu 54%
Ce Liu by KO/TKO (43%)
Result
Ce Liu
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Sumudaerji 57%
Sumudaerji by DEC (45%)
Result
Sumudaerji
by DEC · R3
Model
Kai Asakura 63%
Kai Asakura by DEC (30%)
Result
Kai Asakura
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Denise Gomes 58%
Denise Gomes by DEC (35%)
Result
Denise Gomes
by KO/TKO · R1
Song Yadong vs Umar NurmagomedovMain event
Model
Umar Nurmagomedov 72%
Umar Nurmagomedov by DEC (53%)
Result
Song Yadong
by KO/TKO · R2
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3 2026-08-25Winners4/5Exact2/5Distance5/5
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Model
Nick Galanti 58%
Nick Galanti by KO/TKO (29%)+420
Result
Nick Galanti
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Ronald Humphrey 73%-1100
Ronald Humphrey by DEC (33%)
Result
Ronald Humphrey
by SUB · R1
Model
Sean Clancy Jr. 72%-1100
Sean Clancy Jr. by KO/TKO (53%)-130
Result
Sean Clancy Jr.
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Guilherme Uriel 52%-148
Guilherme Uriel by KO/TKO (27%)
Result
Guilherme Uriel
by SUB · R1
Alex Apodaca vs Bella MirMain event
Model
Bella Mir 74%
Bella Mir by DEC (40%)+1200
Result
Alex Apodaca
by DEC · R3
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22Winners2/5Exact0/5Distance3/5
8 of these 13 picks were made after their card segment started. They are marked AFTER START below and are excluded from the totals above.
Prelims
Shanelle Dyer vs Elise ReedAFTER START
Model
Shanelle Dyer 75%
Shanelle Dyer by KO/TKO (42%)
Result
Shanelle Dyer
by KO/TKO · R3
Jackson McVey vs Wes SchultzAFTER START
Model
Wes Schultz 53%
Wes Schultz by SUB (37%)
Result
Jackson McVey
by KO/TKO · R1
Stan Dorsainvil vs Gauge YoungAFTER START
Model
Stan Dorsainvil 58%
Stan Dorsainvil by DEC (30%)
Result
Stan Dorsainvil
by DEC · R3
Ryan Kuse vs Marcio BarbosaAFTER START
Model
Marcio Barbosa 72%
Marcio Barbosa by KO/TKO (54%)-400
Result
Marcio Barbosa
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Chris Padilla 56%-115
Chris Padilla by KO/TKO (30%)+480
Result
Chris Padilla
by SUB · R3
Model
Kennedy Nzechukwu 60%
Kennedy Nzechukwu by KO/TKO (48%)
Result
Shamil Gaziev
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Lerryan Douglas 65%
Lerryan Douglas by KO/TKO (49%)
Result
Jamall Emmers
by KO/TKO · R1
Main card
Anthony Wint vs Terrance ChatmanAFTER START
Model
Anthony Wint 77%-800
Anthony Wint by KO/TKO (34%)-310
Result
Anthony Wint
by SUB · R1
Jeisla Chaves vs Carli JudiceAFTER START
Model
Carli Judice 65%-575
Carli Judice by DEC (29%)
Result
Carli Judice
by KO/TKO · R1
Mason Jones vs MarQuel MederosAFTER START
Model
Mason Jones 64%
Mason Jones by DEC (37%)
Result
MarQuel Mederos
by KO/TKO · R2
Reinier de Ridder vs Roman DolidzeAFTER START
Model
Reinier de Ridder 67%
Reinier de Ridder by DEC (29%)
Result
Reinier de Ridder
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Vitor Petrino 69%
Vitor Petrino by KO/TKO (41%)
Result
Vitor Petrino
by DEC · R3
Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony HernandezMain event
Model
Anthony Hernandez 57%
Anthony Hernandez by SUB (23%)
Result
Gregory Rodrigues
by DEC · R5
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 2 2026-08-18Winners2/5Exact2/5Distance4/5
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Model
Taner Trembley 51%
Taner Trembley by KO/TKO (20%)+1000
Result
Roman Puga
by DEC · R3
Model
Mahamed Aly 61%-310
Mahamed Aly by KO/TKO (50%)+155
Result
Alik Lorenz
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Cristian Pérez 59%-260
Cristian Perez by KO/TKO (39%)
Result
Cristian Pérez
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Douglas Rodrigues 69%
Douglas Rodrigues by KO/TKO (39%)
Result
Trent Miller
by SUB · R2
Namo Fazil vs Kaik BritoMain event
Model
Kaik Brito 51%
Kaik Brito by KO/TKO (44%)
Result
Kaik Brito
by KO/TKO · R3
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15Winners2/4Exact1/4Distance4/4
8 of these 12 picks were made after their card segment started. They are marked AFTER START below and are excluded from the totals above.
Early prelims
Myktybek Orolbai vs Jeremiah WellsAFTER START
Model
Myktybek Orolbai 78%-1100
Myktybek Orolbai by DEC (41%)+230
Result
Jeremiah Wells
by SUB · R3
Ramiz Brahimaj vs Neil MagnyAFTER START
Model
Ramiz Brahimaj 69%-145
Ramiz Brahimaj by SUB (46%)
Result
Neil Magny
by KO/TKO · R2
Lucas Fernando vs Rafael TobiasAFTER START
Model
Lucas Fernando 63%-280
Lucas Fernando by KO/TKO (44%)
Result
Lucas Fernando
by KO/TKO · R3
Prelims
Tresean Gore vs Vicente LuqueAFTER START
Model
Vicente Luque 52%-102
Vicente Luque by DEC (23%)+470
Result
Tresean Gore
by DEC · R3
Eric McConico vs Donte JohnsonAFTER START
Model
Donte Johnson 80%-305
Donte Johnson by KO/TKO (64%)
Result
Donte Johnson
by KO/TKO · R1
Eduardo Chapolin vs Charles JohnsonAFTER START
Model
Eduardo Chapolin 60%
Eduardo Chapolin by DEC (38%)
Result
Charles Johnson
by SUB · R3
Joel Álvarez vs Chidi NjokuaniAFTER START
Model
Joel Álvarez 59%
Joel Álvarez by KO/TKO (32%)
Result
Chidi Njokuani
by DEC · R3
Main card
Esteban Ribovics vs Edson BarbozaAFTER START
Model
Esteban Ribovics 74%-700
Esteban Ribovics by DEC (35%)+330
Result
Esteban Ribovics
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Mansur Abdul-Malik 69%-650
Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO (36%)
Result
Dustin Stoltzfus
by SUB · R2
Model
Jalin Turner 51%-110
Jalin Turner by DEC (21%)+750
Result
Jalin Turner
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Gillian Robertson 51%
Gillian Robertson by DEC (33%)+310
Result
Mackenzie Dern
by DEC · R5
Ian Machado Garry vs Islam MakhachevMain event
Model
Islam Makhachev 59%-325
Islam Makhachev by DEC (27%)+160
Result
Islam Makhachev
by DEC · R5
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 1 2026-08-11Winners0/0Exact0/0Distance0/0
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
5 of these 5 bouts had no pick locked before the fight. They are marked BACKTEST below and are excluded from the totals above.
Jon Kunneman vs Joe KropschotBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Jon Kunneman 57%
Jon Kunneman by SUB (29%)
Result
Joe Kropschot
by DEC · R3
Ananias Mulumba vs Tom PagliaruloBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Tom Pagliarulo 53%+135
Tom Pagliarulo by KO/TKO (31%)
Result
Tom Pagliarulo
by KO/TKO · R3
Mridul Saikia vs Bilal HasanBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Bilal Hasan 75%
Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO (47%)
Result
Bilal Hasan
by KO/TKO · R1
Fabrizio Escarrega vs Abe AlsaghirBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Abe Alsaghir 54%+115
Abe Alsaghir by KO/TKO (29%)
Result
Abe Alsaghir
by DEC · R3
Matt Adams vs Anthony WintMain eventBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Anthony Wint 71%
Anthony Wint by KO/TKO (47%)
Result
Anthony Wint
by KO/TKO · R1
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08Winners5/6Exact2/6Distance4/6
6 of these 12 bouts had no pick locked before the fight. They are marked BACKTEST below and are excluded from the totals above.
Prelims
Carol Foro vs Gigi CanutoBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Carol Foro 63%
Carol Foro by DEC (34%)
Result
Carol Foro
by DEC · R3
Ravena Oliveira vs Juliana MillerBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Juliana Miller 60%
Juliana Miller by DEC (25%)
Result
Juliana Miller
by SUB · R2
Gianni Vazquez vs Miles JohnsBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Miles Johns 56%
Miles Johns by DEC (43%)
Result
Miles Johns
by KO/TKO · R1
Richie Miranda vs Manoel SousaBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Manoel Sousa 61%
Manoel Sousa by DEC (27%)
Result
Manoel Sousa
by DEC · R3
José Montanha vs Louie SutherlandBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Louie Sutherland 52%
Louie Sutherland by DEC (27%)
Result
José Montanha
by SUB · R1
Model
Diyar Nurgozhay 62%
Diyar Nurgozhay by KO/TKO (45%)
Result
Diyar Nurgozhay
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Steven Asplund 60%
Steven Asplund by KO/TKO (33%)+150
Result
Steven Asplund
by DEC · R3
Main card
Model
Ty Miller 62%
Ty Miller by DEC (33%)
Result
Ty Miller
by KO/TKO · R3
Model
Alexia Thainara 76%
Alexia Thainara by DEC (41%)
Result
Alexia Thainara
by DEC · R3
Yadier del Valle vs Darren ElkinsBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Yadier del Valle 66%
Yadier del Valle by DEC (37%)
Result
Yadier del Valle
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Billy Quarantillo 55%
Billy Quarantillo by KO/TKO (33%)
Result
Diego Ferreira
by DEC · R3
Quillan Salkilld vs Mateusz GamrotMain event
Model
Quillan Salkilld 59%
Quillan Salkilld by DEC (31%)
Result
Quillan Salkilld
by SUB · R1
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01Winners10/14Exact5/14Distance9/14
Prelims
Model
Stephanie Luciano 61%-325
Stephanie Luciano by DEC (36%)
Result
Stephanie Luciano
by SUB · R1
Model
Jovan Leka 61%
Jovan Leka by KO/TKO (34%)
Result
Jovan Leka
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Nina Milošević 74%
Nina Milošević by DEC (34%)
Result
Nina Milošević
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Mateusz Rębecki 73%-450
Mateusz Rębecki by DEC (36%)
Result
Mateusz Rębecki
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Bogdan Grad 60%
Bogdan Grad by DEC (26%)
Result
Bogdan Grad
by SUB · R2
Model
Borislav Nikolic 56%
Borislav Nikolic by DEC (37%)
Result
Borislav Nikolic
by DEC · R3
Model
Michael Oliveira 70%-325
Michael Oliveira by KO/TKO (51%)
Result
Michael Oliveira
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Ludovit Klein 70%
Ludovit Klein by DEC (55%)
Result
Tofiq Musayev
by KO/TKO · R2
Main card
Model
Milos Janicic 50%
Milos Janicic by DEC (25%)+650
Result
Noah Gugnon
by SUB · R1
Model
Vlasto Čepo 66%-300
Vlasto Čepo by KO/TKO (49%)-210
Result
Gilbert Urbina
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Duško Todorović 56%
Duško Todorović by KO/TKO (34%)
Result
Robert Valentin
by SUB · R1
Model
Aleksandar Rakic 68%
Aleksandar Rakic by DEC (33%)
Result
Aleksandar Rakic
by DEC · R3
Model
Navajo Stirling 80%
Navajo Stirling by DEC (40%)
Result
Navajo Stirling
by KO/TKO · R1
Daniel Rodriguez vs Uroš MedićMain event
Model
Uroš Medić 68%
Uroš Medić by KO/TKO (45%)-240
Result
Uroš Medić
by KO/TKO · R1
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25Winners12/12Exact7/12Distance9/12
Prelims
Model
Abdul Hussein 81%
Abdul Hussein by SUB (46%)+185
Result
Abdul Hussein
by SUB · R3
Model
Nurullo Aliev 75%
Nurullo Aliev by DEC (58%)
Result
Nurullo Aliev
by DEC · R3
Model
Magomed Tuchalov 80%
Magomed Tuchalov by KO/TKO (58%)-250
Result
Magomed Tuchalov
by DEC · R3
Model
Axel Sola 71%
Axel Sola by KO/TKO (40%)
Result
Axel Sola
by SUB · R1
Model
Sam Patterson 67%
Sam Patterson by KO/TKO (36%)
Result
Sam Patterson
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Muhammad Said 67%
Muhammad Said by KO/TKO (34%)
Result
Muhammad Said
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Valter Walker 62%-170
Valter Walker by KO/TKO (34%)+650
Result
Valter Walker
by SUB · R1
Main card
Model
Abubakar Vagaev 51%
Abubakar Vagaev by DEC (45%)-115
Result
Abubakar Vagaev
by DEC · R3
Model
Rizvan Kuniev 60%
Rizvan Kuniev by KO/TKO (32%)
Result
Rizvan Kuniev
by KO/TKO · R3
Model
Magomed Zaynukov 57%
Magomed Zaynukov by DEC (29%)
Result
Magomed Zaynukov
by DEC · R3
Model
Ramazan Temirov 56%
Ramazonbek Temirov by DEC (28%)
Result
Ramazan Temirov
by KO/TKO · R1
Bogdan Guskov vs Magomed AnkalaevMain event
Model
Magomed Ankalaev 63%
Magomed Ankalaev by DEC (35%)+450
Result
Magomed Ankalaev
by KO/TKO · R5
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18Winners9/12Exact4/12Distance6/12
Prelims
Model
Anna Melisano 59%
Anna Melisano by DEC (39%)
Result
Dione Barbosa
by SUB · R1
Model
RJ Harris 73%
RJ Harris by DEC (29%)
Result
RJ Harris
by KO/TKO · R1
Model
Alden Coria 79%
Alden Coria by DEC (29%)
Result
Alden Coria
by DEC · R3
Model
Ezra Elliott 56%
Ezra Elliott by SUB (24%)
Result
Ezra Elliott
by DEC · R3
Model
Levi Rodrigues 51%
Levi Rodrigues by KO/TKO (23%)
Result
Felipe Franco
by KO/TKO · R2
Model
Seokhyeon Ko 51%
Seokhyeon Ko by KO/TKO (31%)
Result
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
by DEC · R3
Model
Jose Miguel Delgado 52%
Jose Miguel Delgado by DEC (22%)+550
Result
Jose Miguel Delgado
by DEC · R3
Main card
Model
Tommy McMillen 72%-175
Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO (32%)
Result
Tommy McMillen
by KO/TKO · R3
Model
Fatima Kline 64%
Fatima Kline by DEC (39%)-170
Result
Fatima Kline
by DEC · R3
Model
Chase Hooper 81%
Chase Hooper by KO/TKO (29%)
Result
Chase Hooper
by SUB · R1
Model
Christian Leroy Duncan 76%
Christian Leroy Duncan by KO/TKO (48%)+190
Result
Christian Leroy Duncan
by DEC · R3
Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du PlessisMain event
Model
Dricus Du Plessis 61%
Dricus Du Plessis by SUB (25%)+1000
Result
Dricus Du Plessis
by DEC · R5
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11Winners0/0Exact0/0Distance0/0
14 of these 14 bouts had no pick locked before the fight. They are marked BACKTEST below and are excluded from the totals above.
Early prelims
Alessandro Costa vs Cody DurdenBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Alessandro Costa 63%
Alessandro Costa by SUB (23%)
Result
Alessandro Costa
by SUB · R2
Zach Reese vs Ryan GandraBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Ryan Gandra 54%-134
Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO (31%)
Result
Ryan Gandra
by KO/TKO · R1
Farid Basharat vs John GarzaBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Farid Basharat 76%-620
Farid Basharat by DEC (42%)
Result
Farid Basharat
by DEC · R3
Cesar Almeida vs Damian PinasBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Damian Pinas 73%
Damian Pinas by KO/TKO (37%)
Result
Damian Pinas
by KO/TKO · R1
Wang Cong vs Tracy CortezBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Wang Cong 56%-115
Wang Cong by DEC (27%)
Result
Wang Cong
by DEC · R3
Prelims
Kai Kamaka vs Luke RileyBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Luke Riley 64%-220
Luke Riley by KO/TKO (35%)
Result
Luke Riley
by KO/TKO · R1
Adrian Yañez vs Cody GarbrandtBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Adrian Yañez 70%
Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO (42%)
Result
Adrian Yañez
by KO/TKO · R1
Elisha Ellison vs Gable StevesonBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Gable Steveson 54%-1350
Gable Steveson by KO/TKO (28%)
Result
Gable Steveson
by KO/TKO · R1
Nikita Krylov vs Robert WhittakerBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Nikita Krylov 67%
Nikita Krylov by KO/TKO (29%)
Result
Robert Whittaker
by KO/TKO · R3
Main card
Terrance McKinney vs King GreenBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Terrance McKinney 68%+100
Terrance Mckinney by KO/TKO (32%)
Result
King Green
by KO/TKO · R1
Lone'er Kavanagh vs Brandon RoyvalBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Lone'er Kavanagh 56%-215
Lone'er Kavanagh by DEC (35%)
Result
Brandon Royval
by SUB · R3
Mario Bautista vs Cory SandhagenBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Mario Bautista 60%
Mario Bautista by DEC (34%)+175
Result
Mario Bautista
by DEC · R3
Benoit Saint-Denis vs Paddy PimblettBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Benoit Saint-Denis 75%-125
Benoit Saint-Denis by SUB (37%)+330
Result
Paddy Pimblett
by SUB · R1
Conor McGregor vs Max HollowayMain eventBACKTESTNo pick was locked before this fight; rebuilt afterward, so it's left out of the record.
Model
Max Holloway 60%-280
Max Holloway by KO/TKO (21%)-120
Result
Max Holloway
by KO/TKO · R1
Scored automatically as each bout ends. “Exact” requires the single most likely outcome (winner + method) to hit — a 6-way call where always guessing favorite-by-decision runs ~26%. Method-of-victory prices shown beside the top outcome are sourced from published sportsbook props (our odds feed carries no MMA method markets); prices marked “R1 KO” or “UD” are the nearest documented market variant. Hold-out results, not a promise of future returns. Model is experimental. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Picks grade as each bout ends. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.