About the UFC model

What it predicts

• Who wins. The chance each fighter wins. This is the number the record is kept on.
• How it ends. Knockout, submission or decision for each fighter.
• When it ends. The chance the fight ends in each round, and the chance it goes the distance.

What it looks at

Each fighter's record and recent form, how they strike and grapple, how they hold up when hit, physical traits and age, time off, and how the matchup fits together. It also checks its number against the betting market. The exact inputs and how they are weighted are not published.

How it is held accountable

Changes are tested on fights the model was not tuned on, and an idea ships only if it holds up. Plenty do not, and they stay out. Every pick is stored before the card starts and cannot be edited afterward. The morning after each event it is graded and added to the track record, misses included. Picks scored after the fact are marked backtest and never count toward the headline record.

What it does not know

• Camp and injuries. No input for training camp, injuries or weight cuts. Short-notice fights and late replacements carry a warning on the fight page; treat those calls as weaker.
• Thin tape. Debutants and fighters with little footage sit close to average.
• It is a probability. A 70% pick loses about three times in ten. That is the model working as designed.