Marcin Tybura vs Aleksandar Rakic
1:00 PM ET· finalModel pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Aleksandar Rakicby DEC68% to win · closed -335
Result: Aleksandar Rakic by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Aleksandar Rakic
68% -214
Marcin Tybura
32% +214
How it ends
Rakic by KO/TKO
14.9%
fair +573
Rakic by SUB
2.9%
fair +3291
Rakic by DEC
50.3%
fair -101
Tybura by KO/TKO
18.5%
fair +442
Tybura by SUB
1.2%
fair +8250
Tybura by DEC
12.2%
fair +721
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R120.2%fair +394
Ends in R211.1%fair +799
Ends in R36.1%fair +1535
Goes distance62.5%fair -167
How this fight plays out
The model makes Rakic a solid 68% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.2 vs 3.3 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Rakic's most likely path is on the scorecards (50%), and the fight goes the distance 63% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.