Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Yadier del Valle vs Darren Elkins

8:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Yadier del Valleby DEC66% to win
Result: Yadier del Valle by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Darren Elkins
21% +375
Yadier del Valle
79% -375
How it ends
Elkins by KO/TKO
0.4%
fair +23665
Elkins by SUB
5.9%
fair +1595
Elkins by DEC
14.7%
fair +579
Valle by KO/TKO
24.8%
fair +303
Valle by SUB
16.2%
fair +518
Valle by DEC
38.0%
fair +163

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R125.5%fair +292
Ends in R214.0%fair +612
Ends in R37.7%fair +1195
Goes distance52.7%fair -111
How this fight plays out

The model makes Valle a clear 79% favorite. Expect Elkins to chase the takedown (2.9/15 min at 31%) while Valle tries to keep it standing behind 62% takedown defense. Valle is most dangerous early — 6 of 11 tracked wins ended in the first round. Valle's most likely path is on the scorecards (38%), and the fight goes the distance 53% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.