Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis

8:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Dricus Du Plessisby SUB61% to win · closed -194
Result: Dricus Du Plessis by DEC in Round 5 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Dricus Du Plessis
66% -198
Kamaru Usman
34% +198
How it ends
Plessis by KO/TKO
11.8%
fair +745
Plessis by SUB
12.0%
fair +735
Plessis by DEC
42.6%
fair +135
Usman by KO/TKO
3.5%
fair +2725
Usman by SUB
1.9%
fair +5087
Usman by DEC
28.1%
fair +256

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R113.5%fair +643
Ends in R27.4%fair +1251
Ends in R34.1%fair +2357
Ends in R42.8%fair +3473
Ends in R51.5%fair +6397
Goes distance70.7%fair -242
How this fight plays out

The model makes Plessis a solid 66% favorite. Striking volume is near even (5.1 vs 4.3 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Usman tends to settle in for the long haul — 8 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Plessis's most likely path is on the scorecards (43%), and the fight goes the distance 71% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.