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NFL · Track record

NFL: every call, graded

About this page
Every winner call, locked before kickoff and graded after, with the backtest and calibration underneath. Winners are the record, misses included. How the model works →
This week’s gamesModel board

Last graded

Winners calledOnly picks locked before the start count. A pick made later, or priced after the fact, never enters it.

Locked before the start, graded after
Our picks
61%
65–41
Betting favorite
62%
66–40

The same 106 priced games, winners only. Where a game is priced our pick is built on the market's price, so the two mostly match; we claim no edge. When we took the other side: 3–4.

Every graded pick, priced or not

Won–lost
65–41
Win rateWhere the true win rate likely sits (90% range). Under 30 picks, too early to read.
61%
90% range 53–69%
Graded
106
picks
Expected winsThe sum of its stated win probabilities. If those are right, wins land in this range 9 times in 10.
67.8
90% range 59.8–75.8
Win rate 61%90% rangeIts probabilities said 64%

Won 65. Its stated probabilities expected 67.8 (90% range 59.8–75.8): inside that range, in line with its probabilities.

By method: model alone 20–13 (33), market-anchored 45–28 (73).

Backtest, not in the record: 63.7% of 1,693 games (walk-forward backtest of the model alone, 2020–25 seasons).

Against the betting favoriteSame games, winners only. The favorite is the side with the shorter no-vig moneyline when the pick was locked.

106 priced games
Our pickon the games that had a price65–41 61%n 106
The betting favoritethe same games, no model66–40 62%n 106
When we picked the favorite62–37 63%n 99
When we took the other sidethe games we disagreed with the market3–4 43%n 7 · too early to read
How close the probabilities were
GamesBrier: oursmarketLog loss: oursmarket
All scored picks n 1060.2320.2330.6580.662
Model alone n 330.2310.2290.6540.653
Market-anchored n 730.2320.2350.6590.665

Lower is better for both. Each row scores our stated win probability and the market's no-vig probability on the same games and outcomes.

Picks locked before Sept 26 are the model alone; since then a priced game's number is built mostly on the market's no-vig price. Under 30 games a record is too early to read either way. Every pick, one row each →

Expected vs actual winnersThe dashed line is the wins its own probabilities expected, shaded for luck's 90% band. Solid is what happened.

106 picks
model alone ← | → market-anchored
Pick 1 · Sep 9Pick 106 · Oct 26
Won 65Expected 67.890% band 59.8–75.8

Dotted line, pick 33: the method changed. Before it the calls were the model alone; after it a priced game’s number follows the market’s price, so the stretches are not the same product.

The solid line ends inside the shaded band: the record is where honest probabilities would put it.

Show as a table
After pickDateWonExpected90% band
13Sep 1398.05.2–10.9
27Sep 201516.912.8–21.0
40Sep 272425.620.7–30.5
53Oct 43133.828.2–39.5
66Oct 113942.536.2–48.8
80Oct 184751.144.1–58.0
93Oct 225659.552.1–67.0
106Oct 266567.859.8–75.8

When it said 70%, did it win 70%?Each lane is a confidence band. Calibrated means the dot lands in its gray band; the bar shows luck's range.

live and backtest
  • Said 50–60%
    51% won 22 of 4390% range 39–63%backtest 54% of 656
  • Said 60–70%
    67% won 22 of 3390% range 52–78%backtest 64% of 517
  • Said 70–80%
    70% won 19 of 2790% range 55–82%backtest 71% of 360
  • Said 80–90%
    67% won 2 of 3only 3 graded: too few to judgebacktest 84% of 142
  • Said 90–100%
    no live picks yetbacktest 94% of 18
The band it statedLive win rate90% rangeBacktest win rate

Live picks, locked before the start. Backtest: walk-forward backtest of the model alone, 2020–25 seasons, not in the record. Lanes with fewer than 10 graded picks are faded.

Every graded gameLatest graded games: the model's pick, its win % and whether it won. Tap one to see why.

latest 60

What it says: in the walk-forward backtest the model called 63.7% of 1,693 NFL games, and the lanes above show whether its percentages hold up on the locked picks. The model makes no spread or total pick; its margin and total on each card are context beside the market’s numbers. The winner record, set beside the betting favorite’s, is the product.

Picks grade as each game goes final. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.