Probetrics — Sports Analytics
← UFC picksFight data: tape, stats, form, odds →

Eric Nolan vs Court McGee

4:00 PM ET· scheduled
Save imageSquare
Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Eric Nolanby KO/TKO~ Round 1
58% to win · 28% that it’s by KO/TKO · 56% it ends inside the distance, most likely around Round 1
Model fair price -139
Probetrics fight model
Court McGee
42% +139
Eric Nolan
58% -139
How it ends
McGee by KO/TKO
2.0%
fair +5004
McGee by SUB
22.3%
fair +349
McGee by DEC
17.6%
fair +469
Nolan by KO/TKO
28.4%
fair +252
Nolan by SUB
3.0%
fair +3190
Nolan by DEC
26.7%
fair +275

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R130.1%fair +232
Ends in R216.5%fair +504
Ends in R39.1%fair +999
Goes distance44.3%fair +126
How this fight plays out

The model makes Nolan a solid 58% favorite. McGee will out-work him on volume (4.1 vs 2.7/min) — Nolan's route is a finish, not a points battle. Nolan is most dangerous early — 3 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Nolan's most likely path is by KO/TKO (28%), and the fight goes the distance 44% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Nolan: McGee finishes 39% of wins by submission and Nolan has been submitted in 40% of losses.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.