Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Axel Sola vs Ismael Bonfim

9:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Axel Solaby KO/TKO71% to win · closed -170
Result: Axel Sola by SUB in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Ismael Bonfim
36% +177
Axel Sola
64% -177
How it ends
Bonfim by KO/TKO
12.3%
fair +711
Bonfim by SUB
1.6%
fair +6145
Bonfim by DEC
22.2%
fair +351
Sola by KO/TKO
30.2%
fair +231
Sola by SUB
21.1%
fair +374
Sola by DEC
12.6%
fair +697

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R135.2%fair +184
Ends in R219.4%fair +416
Ends in R310.7%fair +838
Goes distance34.7%fair +188
How this fight plays out

The model makes Sola a solid 64% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.9 vs 4.4 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Sola's most likely path is by KO/TKO (30%), and the fight goes the distance 35% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.