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Model pick: Jacobe Smith (89%), locked before the start; Jacobe Smith won (graded a hit).
Books price Smith at 90% to win (vig removed). That is the published win chance: for a priced bout it is the market's number, with no model weight added. The model alone has Smith at 80%.
The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.
Big number: the model's chance of that ending. Small number under it: the books' no-vig chance (— where they don't price it). Tap a cell for fair and best prices.
Solid: the model. Dashed: the books' map. ◇ = a separate two-way price for the same thing: over 0.5 rounds 67% · over 1.5 rounds 30% · goes the distance 13%.
Oldest to newest. Above the line: won; below: lost. Filled: ended early (K = KO/TKO, S = submission, then the round). Outline D: went to the judges. Tap a tile for the fight.
5 of 20 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 9% that it goes the distance, the books 12%. History, not a forecast.
The betting market's no-vig price makes Smith a clear 90% favorite, and that is the published win chance. The model alone has Smith at 80%. Expect Smith to chase the takedown (5.2/15 min at 92%) while Whitehead tries to keep it standing. Smith is most dangerous early — 9 of 13 tracked wins ended in the first round. Smith's most likely path is by KO/TKO (54%), and the fight goes the distance 9% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
