NBA · Track record
NBA: every call, graded
Locked before tipoff, graded after the final, misses included. How the model is tested →
About this page
Locked before tipoff, graded after the final, misses included. How the model is tested →
Last graded
Winners calledOnly picks locked before the start count. A pick made later, or priced after the fact, never enters it.
Locked before the start, graded afterWon–lost
114–46
Win rateWhere the true win rate likely sits (90% range). Under 30 picks, too early to read.
71%
90% range 65–77%
Graded
160
picks
Last 25
19–6
76%
On games with a price, the win chance is built on the betting market's number, so these picks usually match the favorite.
76 NBA picks locked for the games ahead. Every one grades here for free after the final. Seeing them before the start is Pro.
See the picks →Start 7-day free trialRecent formThe same winners record, sliced: the latest picks, then longer stretches. Short stretches swing a lot.
Streak L1
Last 109–1 90%n 10 · 65–98%
Last 2519–6 76%n 25 · 60–87%
Last 5040–10 80%n 50 · 69–88%
Every graded pick
Won 114 of 160
Start (ET)GamePickResult
- NBANov 10, 11:00 PM
Oklahoma City Thunder103
Portland Trail Blazers123NBA · Nov 10, 11:00 PMOKC54%✗✗ Lost - NBANov 10, 10:00 PM
Orlando Magic107
Sacramento Kings100NBA · Nov 10, 10:00 PMORL65%✓✓ Won - NBANov 10, 9:00 PM
LA Clippers110
Phoenix Suns133NBA · Nov 10, 9:00 PMPHX61%✓✓ Won - NBANov 10, 9:00 PM
Miami Heat115
Utah Jazz109NBA · Nov 10, 9:00 PMMIA74%✓✓ Won - NBANov 10, 8:00 PM
Boston Celtics123
Philadelphia 76ers101NBA · Nov 10, 8:00 PMBOS53%✓✓ Won - NBANov 10, 7:30 PM
Milwaukee Bucks85
New York Knicks117NBA · Nov 10, 7:30 PMNYK89%✓✓ Won - NBANov 9, 10:00 PM
New Orleans Pelicans87
Golden State Warriors138NBA · Nov 9, 10:00 PMGSW81%✓✓ Won - NBANov 9, 9:00 PM
San Antonio Spurs122Phoenix Suns96NBA · Nov 9, 9:00 PMSAS76%✓✓ Won - NBANov 9, 8:30 PM
Denver Nuggets100
Houston Rockets110NBA · Nov 9, 8:30 PMHOU62%✓✓ Won - NBANov 9, 8:00 PM
Indiana Pacers122
Dallas Mavericks125NBA · Nov 9, 8:00 PMDAL63%✓✓ Won - NBANov 9, 7:30 PM
Memphis Grizzlies118
Toronto Raptors102NBA · Nov 9, 7:30 PMMEM51%✓✓ Won - NBANov 9, 7:00 PM
Los Angeles Lakers124
Atlanta Hawks114NBA · Nov 9, 7:00 PMATL56%✗✗ Lost - NBANov 9, 7:00 PM
Cleveland Cavaliers112
Charlotte Hornets124NBA · Nov 9, 7:00 PMCLE74%✗✗ Lost - NBANov 9, 7:00 PM
Washington Wizards111
Detroit Pistons122NBA · Nov 9, 7:00 PMDET78%✓✓ Won - NBANov 8, 9:00 PMNew Orleans Pelicans123LA Clippers139NBA · Nov 8, 9:00 PMNOP52%✗✗ Lost
- NBANov 8, 9:00 PMMiami Heat114Sacramento Kings108NBA · Nov 8, 9:00 PMMIA81%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 8, 8:00 PMBoston Celtics117Milwaukee Bucks97NBA · Nov 8, 8:00 PMBOS85%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 8, 7:30 PM
Brooklyn Nets93Dallas Mavericks130NBA · Nov 8, 7:30 PMDAL72%✓✓ Won - NBANov 8, 7:00 PMUtah Jazz100
Minnesota Timberwolves115NBA · Nov 8, 7:00 PMMIN84%✓✓ Won - NBANov 8, 6:00 PMLos Angeles Lakers121Detroit Pistons116NBA · Nov 8, 6:00 PMDET70%✗✗ Lost
- NBANov 8, 3:30 PMPhiladelphia 76ers127
Chicago Bulls121NBA · Nov 8, 3:30 PMPHI79%✓✓ Won - NBANov 7, 10:00 PMSan Antonio Spurs125Portland Trail Blazers103NBA · Nov 7, 10:00 PMSAS56%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 7, 9:00 PMHouston Rockets99Phoenix Suns102NBA · Nov 7, 9:00 PMHOU69%✗✗ Lost
- NBANov 7, 8:30 PMOrlando Magic119Golden State Warriors126NBA · Nov 7, 8:30 PMGSW72%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 7, 8:00 PMNew York Knicks109Cleveland Cavaliers97NBA · Nov 7, 8:00 PMNYK63%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 7, 8:00 PMWashington Wizards75Oklahoma City Thunder114NBA · Nov 7, 8:00 PMOKC83%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 7, 7:30 PMBrooklyn Nets121Atlanta Hawks124NBA · Nov 7, 7:30 PMATL72%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 7, 5:00 PMDenver Nuggets114Indiana Pacers102NBA · Nov 7, 5:00 PMDEN73%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 6, 10:00 PMPortland Trail Blazers118Los Angeles Lakers124NBA · Nov 6, 10:00 PMLAL64%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 6, 10:00 PMSan Antonio Spurs124Sacramento Kings109NBA · Nov 6, 10:00 PMSAS90%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 6, 8:00 PMUtah Jazz100Dallas Mavericks112NBA · Nov 6, 8:00 PMDAL70%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 6, 8:00 PMOklahoma City Thunder128Memphis Grizzlies97NBA · Nov 6, 8:00 PMOKC62%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 6, 8:00 PMToronto Raptors121Milwaukee Bucks107NBA · Nov 6, 8:00 PMTOR60%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 6, 8:00 PMMinnesota Timberwolves115New Orleans Pelicans109NBA · Nov 6, 8:00 PMMIN60%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 6, 7:30 PMPhiladelphia 76ers95Cleveland Cavaliers119NBA · Nov 6, 7:30 PMPHI57%✗✗ Lost
- NBANov 6, 7:00 PMWashington Wizards132Atlanta Hawks139NBA · Nov 6, 7:00 PMATL74%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 6, 7:00 PMBoston Celtics119Charlotte Hornets80NBA · Nov 6, 7:00 PMBOS77%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 5, 10:00 PMMiami Heat100Golden State Warriors120NBA · Nov 5, 10:00 PMGSW60%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 5, 9:00 PMOrlando Magic104Phoenix Suns117NBA · Nov 5, 9:00 PMPHX52%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 4, 10:30 PMMiami Heat117LA Clippers116NBA · Nov 4, 10:30 PMMIA64%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 4, 10:00 PMLos Angeles Lakers116Sacramento Kings103NBA · Nov 4, 10:00 PMLAL83%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 4, 9:30 PMDallas Mavericks111San Antonio Spurs112NBA · Nov 4, 9:30 PMSAS83%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 4, 9:00 PMToronto Raptors109Denver Nuggets128NBA · Nov 4, 9:00 PMDEN64%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 4, 9:00 PMPortland Trail Blazers132Phoenix Suns119NBA · Nov 4, 9:00 PMPOR50%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 4, 8:30 PMMinnesota Timberwolves117Houston Rockets107NBA · Nov 4, 8:30 PMHOU71%✗✗ Lost
- NBANov 4, 8:00 PMIndiana Pacers107Memphis Grizzlies103NBA · Nov 4, 8:00 PMMEM66%✗✗ Lost
- NBANov 4, 8:00 PMUtah Jazz113New Orleans Pelicans120NBA · Nov 4, 8:00 PMNOP64%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 4, 8:00 PMCleveland Cavaliers116Oklahoma City Thunder124NBA · Nov 4, 8:00 PMOKC60%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 4, 7:30 PMMilwaukee Bucks102Boston Celtics109NBA · Nov 4, 7:30 PMBOS82%✓✓ Won
- NBANov 4, 7:30 PMCharlotte Hornets104Brooklyn Nets114NBA · Nov 4, 7:30 PMCHA61%✗✗ Lost
When it said 70%, did it win 70%?
live and backtest
Each lane is a confidence band. Calibrated means the dot lands in its gray band; the bar shows luck's range.
Yes so far: all 4 bands with enough picks landed where they said, within luck's range.
- Said50–60%58%29 of 50
- Said60–70%63%29 of 46
- Said70–80%80%33 of 41
- Said80–100%100%23 of 23
The band it statedLive win rate90% rangeBacktest win rate
Live picks, locked before the start. Backtest: walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2020–25, not in the record. Lanes with fewer than 10 graded picks are faded.
Expected vs actual winners
160 picks
The dashed line is the wins its own probabilities expected, shaded for luck's 90% band. Solid is what happened.
Pick 1 · Oct 20picks in the order the games started →Pick 160 · Nov 10
Won 114Expected 106.790% band 97.2–116.2
The solid line ends inside the shaded band: the record is where honest probabilities would put it.
Show as a table
| After pick | Date | Won | Expected | 90% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Oct 23 | 14 | 12.0 | 8.5–15.6 |
| 40 | Oct 25 | 27 | 25.4 | 20.5–30.3 |
| 60 | Oct 28 | 41 | 39.0 | 33.1–44.9 |
| 80 | Oct 30 | 52 | 52.3 | 45.5–59.1 |
| 100 | Nov 2 | 66 | 65.8 | 58.2–73.4 |
| 120 | Nov 4 | 81 | 79.3 | 71.0–87.6 |
| 140 | Nov 8 | 99 | 92.9 | 83.9–101.8 |
| 160 | Nov 10 | 114 | 106.7 | 97.2–116.2 |
By method and the backtest
How the record splits by how the call was made, and the backtest, which is never part of the record.
Backtest, not in the record: 65.0% of 7,233 games (walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2020–25).
Picks grade as each game goes final. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.