Probetrics — Sports Analytics
← UFC picksFight data: tape, stats, form, odds →

Damien Anderson vs Ezra Elliott

5:00 PM ET· final
Save imageSquare
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Ezra Elliottby SUB56% to win · closed +113
Result: Ezra Elliott by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Ezra Elliott
71% -249
Damien Anderson
29% +249
How it ends
Elliott by KO/TKO
4.9%
fair +1933
Elliott by SUB
35.0%
fair +186
Elliott by DEC
31.4%
fair +218
Anderson by KO/TKO
6.9%
fair +1344
Anderson by SUB
12.7%
fair +686
Anderson by DEC
9.0%
fair +1012

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R132.2%fair +211
Ends in R217.7%fair +465
Ends in R39.7%fair +928
Goes distance40.4%fair +147
How this fight plays out

The model makes Elliott a clear 71% favorite. Expect Elliott to chase the takedown (6.7/15 min at 67%) while Anderson tries to keep it standing behind 33% takedown defense. Elliott is most dangerous early — 7 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Elliott's most likely path is by submission (35%), and the fight goes the distance 40% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.