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Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev

6:00 PM ET· scheduled

Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.

Model pick

Damian Pinasby KO/TKO~ Round 1

71% to win · 46% that it’s by KO/TKO · 67% it ends inside the distance, most likely around Round 1

Model fair price -248

Probetrics fight model

Andrey Pulyaev

29% +248

Damian Pinas

71% -248

How it ends

Pulyaev by KO/TKO

13.1%

fair +664

Pulyaev by SUB

2.0%

fair +4952

Pulyaev by DEC

13.6%

fair +633

Pinas by KO/TKO

46.2%

fair +117

Pinas by SUB

5.6%

fair +1694

Pinas by DEC

19.5%

fair +412

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends

Ends in R136.1%fair +177

Ends in R219.8%fair +404

Ends in R310.9%fair +816

Goes distance33.2%fair +201

How this fight plays out

The model makes Pinas a clear 71% favorite. On the feet, Pinas sets the tempo — 5.0 significant strikes a minute to 3.7 — so Pulyaev needs moments, not volume. Pinas is most dangerous early — 8 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Pinas's most likely path is by KO/TKO (46%), and the fight goes the distance 33% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.