Football · NFL →
College Football · Week 1
Three calls on every game — winner, spread, total — from one forecast, locked before kickoff and graded after. 59 of 99 locked.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs TCU Horned Frogs
Sat, Aug 29, 12:00 PM ET · Aviva StadiumFINAL 15–10Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✗
TCU
77%
model margin TCU by 12.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 49.4
Elo UNC 1506 · TCU 1622SOS UNC 1679 · TCU 1450
San José State Spartans at #14USC Trojans
Sat, Aug 29, 3:00 PM ET · Los Angeles Memorial ColiseumFINAL 26–42Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
USC
89%
model margin USC by 21.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 59.3
Elo SJSU 1399 · USC 1735SOS SJSU 1577 · USC 1474
NC State Wolfpack at Virginia Cavaliers
Sat, Aug 29, 3:30 PM ET · Scott StadiumFINAL 8–34Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
UVA
59%
model margin UVA by 4.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 47.1
Elo NCSU 1597 · UVA 1707SOS NCSU 1661 · UVA 1642
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at North Dakota State Bison
Sat, Aug 29, 5:30 PM ET · Fargodome · IndoorsFINAL 7–33Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✗
JVST
54%
model margin JVST by 1.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 53.7
Elo JVST 1502 · NDSU 1545SOS JVST 1479 · NDSU 1568
Sacramento State Hornets at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Sat, Aug 29, 6:30 PM ET · Rynearson StadiumFINAL 17–28Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
EMU
53%
model margin EMU by 1.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 56.6
Elo SAC 1415 · EMU 1408SOS SAC 1422 · EMU 1400
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Stanford Cardinal
Sat, Aug 29, 7:00 PM ET · Stanford StadiumFINAL 27–37Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✗
HAW
59%
model margin HAW by 3.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 51.9
Elo HAW 1545 · STAN 1507SOS HAW 1473 · STAN 1729
New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State Seminoles
Sat, Aug 29, 7:00 PM ET · Doak Campbell StadiumFINAL 17–34Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
FSU
72%
model margin FSU by 10.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 50.2
Elo NMSU 1329 · FSU 1507SOS NMSU 1483 · FSU 1353
Memphis Tigers at UNLV Rebels
Sat, Aug 29, 10:00 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium · IndoorsFINAL 27–21Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✗
UNLV
65%
model margin UNLV by 6.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 55.2
Elo MEM 1598 · UNLV 1566SOS MEM 1615 · UNLV 1549
Massachusetts Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Thu, Sep 3, 6:00 PM ET · SHI StadiumFINAL 37–21Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✗
RUTG
91%
model margin RUTG by 23.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 63.1
Elo MASS 1286 · RUTG 1416SOS MASS 1531 · RUTG 1171
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at UCF Knights
Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET · Acrisure Bounce HouseFINAL 6–73Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
UCF
70%
model margin UCF by 9.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 52.0
Elo BCU 1327 · UCF 1515SOS BCU 1475 · UCF 1367
Akron Zips at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET · Allegacy Federal Credit Union StadiumFINAL 16–38Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
WAKE
77%
model margin WAKE by 12.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 54.3
Elo AKR 1395 · WAKE 1611SOS AKR 1590 · WAKE 1416
Merrimack Warriors at Delaware Blue Hens
Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET · Delaware StadiumFINAL 7–42Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
DEL
72%
model margin DEL by 10.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 57.8
Elo MRMK 1328 · DEL 1521SOS MRMK 1491 · DEL 1358
West Georgia Wolves at Kennesaw State Owls
Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET · Walens Family Field at Fifth Third StadiumFINAL 0–47Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
KENN
64%
model margin KENN by 6.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 57.8
Elo WES 1455 · KENN 1607SOS WES 1562 · KENN 1500
UAlbany Great Danes at Buffalo Bulls
Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET · Broadview StadiumFINAL 17–21Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
BUFF
56%
model margin BUFF by 2.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 53.5
Elo ALB 1414 · BUFF 1456SOS ALB 1432 · BUFF 1439
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at #25Missouri Tigers
Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET · Memorial StadiumFINAL 14–54Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
MIZ
81%
model margin MIZ by 15.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 49.9
Elo UAPB 1388 · MIZ 1651SOS UAPB 1631 · MIZ 1409
Colorado Buffaloes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET · Bobby Dodd StadiumFINAL 14–13Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✗
GT
75%
model margin GT by 11.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 54.6
Elo COLO 1455 · GT 1569SOS COLO 1591 · GT 1434
Eastern Illinois Panthers at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET · Huntington Bank StadiumFINAL 7–59Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
MINN
79%
model margin MINN by 14.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 50.6
Elo EIU 1402 · MINN 1649SOS EIU 1625 · MINN 1427
Idaho Vandals at #21Utah Utes
Thu, Sep 3, 9:00 PM ET · Rice-Eccles StadiumFINAL 14–66Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
UTAH
87%
model margin UTAH by 19.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 56.3
Elo IDHO 1473 · UTAH 1797SOS IDHO 1782 · UTAH 1488
UAB Blazers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Thu, Sep 3, 9:00 PM ET · Gies Memorial StadiumFINAL 23–42Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
ILL
80%
model margin ILL by 14.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 54.0
Elo UAB 1406 · ILL 1647SOS UAB 1630 · ILL 1423
San José State Spartans at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Fri, Sep 4, 6:30 PM ET · Rynearson StadiumFINAL 27–21Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✗
EMU
71%
model margin EMU by 9.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 57.2
Elo SJSU 1399 · EMU 1408SOS SJSU 1577 · EMU 1400
Indiana State Sycamores at Purdue Boilermakers
Fri, Sep 4, 7:00 PM ET · Ross-Ade StadiumFINAL 19–44Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
PUR
52%
model margin PUR by 1.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 55.9
Elo INST 1358 · PUR 1433SOS INST 1378 · PUR 1413
North Carolina A&T Aggies at Georgia State Panthers
Fri, Sep 4, 7:00 PM ET · Center Parc StadiumFINAL 10–59Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✗
NCAT
56%
model margin NCAT by 2.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 58.5
Elo NCAT 1327 · GAST 1387SOS NCAT 1304 · GAST 1410
UTEP Miners at #10Oklahoma Sooners
Fri, Sep 4, 8:00 PM ET · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)FINAL 0–51Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
OU
92%
model margin OU by 24.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 53.9
Elo UTEP 1313 · OU 1716SOS UTEP 1707 · OU 1322
Long Island University Sharks at Kansas Jayhawks
Fri, Sep 4, 8:00 PM ET · David Booth Kansas Memorial StadiumFINAL 6–51Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
KU
64%
model margin KU by 6.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 51.4
Elo LIU 1405 · KU 1550SOS LIU 1505 · KU 1451
Toledo Rockets at Michigan State Spartans
Fri, Sep 4, 8:00 PM ET · Spartan StadiumFINAL 20–30Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✗
TOL
66%
model margin TOL by 7.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 49.7
Elo TOL 1562 · MSU 1503SOS TOL 1441 · MSU 1624
#7Miami Hurricanes at Stanford Cardinal
Fri, Sep 4, 9:00 PM ET · Stanford StadiumFINAL 45–6Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
MIA
81%
model margin MIA by 15.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 46.9
Elo MIA 1880 · STAN 1507Rest MIA 7d · STAN 6dSOS MIA 1526 · STAN 1729
Fresno State Bulldogs at #14USC Trojans
Fri, Sep 4, 9:00 PM ET · Los Angeles Memorial ColiseumFINAL 0–39Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
USC
69%
model margin USC by 8.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 50.7
Elo FRES 1561 · USC 1735Rest FRES 7d · USC 6dSOS FRES 1699 · USC 1474
North Texas Mean Green at #6Indiana Hoosiers
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 88°
No line
Locks when a line posts.
Elo UNT 1677 · IU 1960
East Carolina Pirates at #13Alabama Crimson Tide
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 93°
No line
Locks when a line posts.
Elo ECU 1647 · ALA 1758
Oregon State Beavers at #23Houston Cougars
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET · TDECU Stadium · 90°
No line
Locks when a line posts.
Elo ORST 1342 · HOU 1613
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at West Virginia Mountaineers
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET · Milan Puskar Stadium · 75°
No line
Locks when a line posts.
Elo CCU 1470 · WVU 1497
New Hampshire Wildcats at Syracuse Orange
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET · JMA Wireless Dome · Indoors
No line
Locks when a line posts.
Elo UNH 1430 · SYR 1383
Ohio Bobcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 92°
No line
Locks when a line posts.
Elo OHIO 1657 · NEB 1537
Lafayette Leopards at UConn Huskies
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 76°
No line
Locks when a line posts.
Elo LAF 1368 · CONN 1580
Bryant Bulldogs at Army Black Knights
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET · Michie Stadium · 78°
No line
Locks when a line posts.
Elo BRY 1440 · ARMY 1640
Tarleton State Texans at Bowling Green Falcons
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 78°
No line
Locks when a line posts.
Elo TAR 1469 · BGSU 1377
Liberty Flames at James Madison Dukes
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET · Bridgeforth Stadium · 71°
No line
Locks when a line posts.
Elo LIB 1439 · JMU 1756
Ball State Cardinals at #1Ohio State Buckeyes
Sat, Sep 5, 12:30 PM ET · Ohio Stadium · 81°
No line
Locks when a line posts.
Elo BALL 1346 · OSU 1853
Miami (OH) RedHawks at Pittsburgh Panthers
Sat, Sep 5, 12:30 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium · 77°
No line
Locks when a line posts.
Elo M-OH 1522 · PITT 1607
Kent State Golden Flashes at South Carolina Gamecocks
Sat, Sep 5, 12:45 PM ET · Williams-Brice Stadium · 92°
No line
Locks when a line posts.
Elo KENT 1390 · SC 1555
Youngstown State Penguins at Kentucky Wildcats
Sat, Sep 5, 1:00 PM ET · Kroger Field · 84°
UK -22.5 · O/U 61.5
YSU +1000 · UK -1800
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
UK -1800
70%
model margin UK by 9.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
YSU +22.5
55%
13.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 61.5
52%
model total 56.0
Elo YSU 1431 · UK 1541
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Iowa State Cyclones
Sat, Sep 5, 1:00 PM ET · Jack Trice Stadium · 83°
ISU -29.5 · O/U 52.5
SEMO +2500 · ISU -9000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ISU -9000
78%
model margin ISU by 13.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
SEMO +29.5
55%
16.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 52.5
51%
model total 51.0
Elo SEMO 1442 · ISU 1629
Duquesne Dukes at Air Force Falcons
Sat, Sep 5, 1:00 PM ET · Falcon Stadium · 83°
AFA -31.5 · O/U 55.5
DUQ +2000 · AFA -6500
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
AFA -6500
73%
model margin AFA by 10.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
DUQ +31.5
57%
20.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 55.5
51%
model total 58.2
Elo DUQ 1345 · AFA 1482
Rhode Island Rams at Temple Owls
Sat, Sep 5, 2:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field · 80° · Mostly sunny
TEM -14.5 · O/U 51.5
URI +500 · TEM -700
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
TEM -700
61%
model margin TEM by 4.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
URI +14.5
53%
9.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 51.5
53%
model total 59.6
Elo URI 1407 · TEM 1440
Tennessee State Tigers at #3Georgia Bulldogs
Sat, Sep 5, 3:00 PM ET · Sanford Stadium · 78° · Mostly sunny
UGA -48.5 · O/U 55.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
UGA
91%
model margin UGA by 23.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
TNST +48.5
59%
25.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 55.5
51%
model total 52.1
Elo TNST 1481 · UGA 1842
Boise State Broncos at #2Oregon Ducks
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Autzen Stadium · 65° · Intermittent clouds
ORE -24.5 · O/U 51.5
BOIS +1300 · ORE -2800
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ORE -2800
83%
model margin ORE by 16.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
BOIS +24.5
53%
7.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 51.5
51%
model total 55.1
Elo BOIS 1608 · ORE 1856
Texas State Bobcats at #5Texas Longhorns
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 97° · Mostly sunny
TEX -29.5 · O/U 60.5
TXST +2500 · TEX -9000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TEX -9000
78%
model margin TEX by 13.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
TXST +29.5
55%
16.1 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 60.5
51%
model total 63.8
Elo TXST 1610 · TEX 1796
Marshall Thundering Herd at #18Penn State Nittany Lions
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Beaver Stadium · 74° · Intermittent clouds
PSU -23.5 · O/U 52.5
MRSH +1000 · PSU -1800
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
PSU -1800
79%
model margin PSU by 14.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MRSH +23.5
53%
9.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 52.5
51%
model total 53.9
Elo MRSH 1523 · PSU 1724
Furman Paladins at #20Tennessee Volunteers
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Neyland Stadium · 95° · Intermittent clouds
TENN -48.5 · O/U 66.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TENN
78%
model margin TENN by 13.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
FUR +48.5
62%
35.1 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 66.5
51%
model total 65.1
Elo FUR 1449 · TENN 1636
Baylor Bears vs Auburn Tigers
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Indoors
AUB -7 · O/U 57.5
BAY +220 · AUB -270
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
AUB -270
54%
model margin AUB by 1.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
BAY +7
52%
5.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Over 57.5
50%
model total 58.3
Elo BAY 1511 · AUB 1544
Boston College Eagles at Cincinnati Bearcats
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Nippert Stadium · 91° · Partly sunny
CIN -7 · O/U 51.5
BC +225 · CIN -278
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
CIN -278
66%
model margin CIN by 7.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
CIN -7
50%
0.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 51.5
52%
model total 56.3
Elo BC 1447 · CIN 1525
Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Wallace Wade Stadium · 97° · Intermittent clouds
DUKE -7.5 · O/U 50.5
TULN +275 · DUKE -345
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
DUKE -345
56%
model margin DUKE by 2.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
TULN +7.5
52%
4.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 50.5
54%
model total 61.2
Elo TULN 1687 · DUKE 1684
The Citadel Bulldogs at Charlotte 49ers
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Jerry Richardson Stadium · 96° · Partly sunny
CLT -20.5 · O/U 48.5
CIT +950 · CLT -1650
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
CIT +950
65%
model margin CIT by 6.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
CIT +20.5
59%
27.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Over 48.5
50%
model total 48.7
Elo CIT 1466 · CLT 1291
Towson Tigers at Navy Midshipmen
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 83° · Intermittent clouds
NAVY -31.5 · O/U 50.5
TOW +5000 · NAVY -100000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
NAVY -100000
86%
model margin NAVY by 19.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
TOW +31.5
54%
12.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 50.5
52%
model total 54.9
Elo TOW 1423 · NAVY 1710
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at UTSA Roadrunners
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Alamodome · Indoors
UTSA -28.5 · O/U 59.5
RGV +2000 · UTSA -6500
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
UTSA -6500
73%
model margin UTSA by 10.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
RGV +28.5
56%
18.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 59.5
52%
model total 64.0
Fordham Rams at North Dakota State Bison
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Fargodome · Indoors
NDSU -41.5 · O/U 54.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
NDSU
68%
model margin NDSU by 8.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
FOR +41.5
61%
33.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 54.5
52%
model total 58.8
Elo FOR 1456 · NDSU 1545
Maine Black Bears at Appalachian State Mountaineers
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Kidd Brewer Stadium · 78° · Partly sunny
APP -20.5 · O/U 53.5
ME +850 · APP -1450
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
APP -1450
58%
model margin APP by 3.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
ME +20.5
56%
16.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 53.5
50%
model total 52.8
Elo ME 1418 · APP 1428
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Sat, Sep 5, 3:45 PM ET · H. A. Chapman Stadium · 100° · Mostly sunny
OKST -13.5 · O/U 57.5
OKST -550 · TLSA +410
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
TLSA +410
64%
model margin TLSA by 6.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
TLSA +13.5
57%
19.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 57.5
53%
model total 50.0
Elo OKST 1314 · TLSA 1369
Northern Illinois Huskies at #22Iowa Hawkeyes
Sat, Sep 5, 4:15 PM ET · Kinnick Stadium · 94° · Mostly sunny
IOWA -31.5 · O/U 44.5
NIU +4000 · IOWA -50000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
IOWA -50000
91%
model margin IOWA by 23.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NIU +31.5
53%
7.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 44.5
50%
model total 45.6
Elo NIU 1374 · IOWA 1746
North Alabama Lions at Arkansas Razorbacks
Sat, Sep 5, 4:15 PM ET · Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium · 99° · Partly sunny
ARK -40.5 · O/U 63.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
ARK
58%
model margin ARK by 3.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
UNA +40.5
62%
36.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 63.5
50%
model total 63.4
Elo UNA 1451 · ARK 1462
Alcorn State Braves at Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Sat, Sep 5, 5:00 PM ET · M. M. Roberts Stadium · 90° · 10 mph wind · Intermittent clouds
USM -19.5 · O/U 50.5
ALCN +900 · USM -1600
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
USM -1600
62%
model margin USM by 5.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
ALCN +19.5
55%
14.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 50.5
52%
model total 55.6
Elo ALCN 1380 · USM 1425
Wyoming Cowboys at Colorado State Rams
Sat, Sep 5, 6:00 PM ET · Canvas Stadium · 94° · Intermittent clouds
CSU -3 · O/U 46.5
WYO +130 · CSU -155
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
WYO +130
50%
model margin WYO by 0.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
WYO +3
51%
3.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 46.5
52%
model total 41.0
Elo WYO 1406 · CSU 1348
Norfolk State Spartans at Old Dominion Monarchs
Sat, Sep 5, 6:00 PM ET · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 81° · 10 mph wind · 40% precip · Intermittent clouds
ODU -40.5 · O/U 52.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ODU
86%
model margin ODU by 18.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NORF +40.5
57%
21.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 52.5
51%
model total 49.4
Elo NORF 1421 · ODU 1702
Missouri State Bears at #8Texas A&M Aggies
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Kyle Field · 79° · 10 mph wind · Partly sunny
TA&M -40.5 · O/U 53.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TA&M
86%
model margin TA&M by 18.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MOST +40.5
57%
21.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 53.5
51%
model total 56.8
Elo MOST 1453 · TA&M 1734
Abilene Christian Wildcats at #12Texas Tech Red Raiders
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Galaxy Stadium · 96° · 13 mph wind · Mostly sunny
TTU -43.5 · O/U 59.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TTU
93%
model margin TTU by 25.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
ACU +43.5
56%
17.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 59.5
53%
model total 51.1
Elo ACU 1390 · TTU 1798
Austin Peay Governors at Vanderbilt Commodores
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · FirstBank Stadium · 98° · Intermittent clouds
VAN -29.5 · O/U 58.5
APSU +2000 · VAN -6500
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
VAN -6500
83%
model margin VAN by 17.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
APSU +29.5
54%
12.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 58.5
51%
model total 59.9
Elo APSU 1485 · VAN 1736
Nicholls Colonels at Kansas State Wildcats
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 76° · Mostly sunny
KSU -41.5 · O/U 54.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
KSU
82%
model margin KSU by 16.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NICH +41.5
59%
25.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 54.5
51%
model total 51.5
Elo NICH 1393 · KSU 1626
Idaho State Bengals at Utah State Aggies
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Maverik Stadium · 86° · 15 mph wind · Mostly sunny
USU -15.5 · O/U 59.5
IDST +470 · USU -650
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
USU -650
68%
model margin USU by 8.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
IDST +15.5
53%
7.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 59.5
51%
model total 61.1
Elo IDST 1415 · USU 1506Weather -1.0 pts off the total
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Memphis Tigers
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 101° · Intermittent clouds
MEM -10.5 · O/U 52.5
ARST +330 · MEM -425
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
MEM -425
65%
model margin MEM by 6.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
ARST +10.5
51%
3.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 52.5
51%
model total 50.4
Elo ARST 1529 · MEM 1598
Houston Christian Huskies at Rice Owls
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Rice Stadium · 83° · Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
RICE -22.5 · O/U 47.5
HCU +1500 · RICE -3600
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
RICE -3600
54%
model margin RICE by 2.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
HCU +22.5
57%
20.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 47.5
53%
model total 54.6
Elo HCU 1428 · RICE 1409
Florida International Panthers at South Florida Bulls
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium · 86° · Intermittent clouds
USF -14.5 · O/U 52.5
FIU +490 · USF -675
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
USF -675
73%
model margin USF by 10.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
FIU +14.5
51%
3.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 52.5
55%
model total 65.4
Elo FIU 1503 · USF 1644
Murray State Racers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · 97° · Intermittent clouds
MTSU -22.5 · O/U 55.5
MUR +1100 · MTSU -2100
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
MTSU -2100
55%
model margin MTSU by 2.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MUR +22.5
57%
20.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 55.5
51%
model total 57.1
Elo MUR 1368 · MTSU 1353
Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · AmFirst Stadium · 86° · Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
JVST -22.5 · O/U 52.5
EKU +1100 · JVST -2100
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
JVST -2100
70%
model margin JVST by 9.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
EKU +22.5
55%
13.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 52.5
51%
model total 50.3
Elo EKU 1395 · JVST 1502
Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Georgia Southern Eagles
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 90° · Partly sunny w/ t-storms
GASO -28.5 · O/U 51.5
CHSO +1800 · GASO -5000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
GASO -5000
75%
model margin GASO by 12.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
CHSO +28.5
56%
16.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Over 51.5
50%
model total 51.8
Elo CHSO 1391 · GASO 1552
SE Louisiana Lions at South Alabama Jaguars
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 82° · Intermittent clouds
USA -13.5 · O/U 52.5
SELA +400 · USA -535
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
USA -535
67%
model margin USA by 7.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
SELA +13.5
52%
5.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 52.5
52%
model total 57.8
Elo SELA 1376 · USA 1458
Sam Houston Bearkats at Troy Trojans
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 68° · Cloudy
TROY -16.5 · O/U 52.5
SHSU +575 · TROY -850
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TROY -850
81%
model margin TROY by 15.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
SHSU +16.5
50%
0.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 52.5
52%
model total 47.4
Elo SHSU 1305 · TROY 1531
Clemson Tigers at #11LSU Tigers
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 84° · Mostly cloudy
LSU -10 · O/U 50.5
CLEM +300 · LSU -380
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
LSU -380
52%
model margin LSU by 1.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
CLEM +10
53%
8.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 50.5
52%
model total 44.7
Elo CLEM 1646 · LSU 1610
Western Michigan Broncos at #16Michigan Wolverines
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET · Michigan Stadium · 73° · Sunny
MICH -27.5 · O/U 49.5
WMU +2000 · MICH -6500
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
MICH -6500
57%
model margin MICH by 3.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
WMU +27.5
58%
24.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 49.5
51%
model total 46.9
Elo WMU 1669 · MICH 1673
UL Monroe Warhawks at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET · Davis Wade Stadium · 98° · Intermittent clouds
MSST -28.5 · O/U 54.5
ULM +1600 · MSST -4000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
MSST -4000
74%
model margin MSST by 11.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
ULM +28.5
56%
17.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 54.5
51%
model total 56.9
Elo ULM 1321 · MSST 1467
VMI Keydets at Virginia Tech Hokies
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET · Lane Stadium · 83° · 10 mph wind · Mostly cloudy
VT -54.5 · O/U 61.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
VT
56%
model margin VT by 2.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
VMI +54.5
67%
52.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 61.5
52%
model total 55.3
Elo VMI 1443 · VT 1433
Northwestern State Demons at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET · Joe Aillet Stadium · 94° · Partly sunny
LT -44.5 · O/U 56.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
LT
79%
model margin LT by 13.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NWST +44.5
60%
30.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 56.5
52%
model total 61.4
Elo NWST 1365 · LT 1559
Florida Atlantic Owls at Florida Gators
Sat, Sep 5, 7:45 PM ET · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 80° · Intermittent clouds
FLA -26.5 · O/U 59.5
FAU +1300 · FLA -2800
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
FLA -2800
72%
model margin FLA by 10.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
FAU +26.5
56%
16.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 59.5
51%
model total 56.8
Elo FAU 1422 · FLA 1552
Utah Tech Trailblazers at #14BYU Cougars
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 88° · 12 mph wind · Mostly sunny
BYU -49.5 · O/U 61.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
BYU
86%
model margin BYU by 19.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
UTU +49.5
60%
30.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 61.5
52%
model total 55.5
Elo UTU 1457 · BYU 1744
Hampton Pirates at Maryland Terrapins
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET · SECU Stadium · 78° · Mostly clear
MD -45.5 · O/U 56.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
HAMP
53%
model margin HAMP by 1.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
HAMP +45.5
66%
47.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 56.5
50%
model total 56.1
South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Northwestern Wildcats
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET · Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium · 77° · 17 mph wind
NU -12.5 · O/U 48.5
SDST +370 · NU -485
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
NU -485
67%
model margin NU by 7.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
SDST +12.5
52%
4.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 48.5
51%
model total 50.0
Elo SDST 1482 · NU 1570Weather -1.7 pts off the total
Lamar Cardinals at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET · Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium · 78° · Partly sunny
UL -20.5 · O/U 48.5
LAM +750 · UL -1200
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
UL -1200
65%
model margin UL by 6.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
LAM +20.5
55%
13.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 48.5
52%
model total 52.8
Elo LAM 1431 · UL 1501
Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico State Aggies
Sat, Sep 5, 9:00 PM ET · Aggie Memorial Stadium · 94° · Mostly sunny
NMSU -29.5 · O/U 52.5
MERC +2200 · NMSU -8000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
MERC +2200
64%
model margin MERC by 6.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MERC +29.5
62%
36.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 52.5
51%
model total 54.3
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Arizona Wildcats
Sat, Sep 5, 9:30 PM ET · Casino Del Sol Stadium · 95° · Intermittent clouds
ARIZ -31.5 · O/U 58.5
NAU +2000 · ARIZ -6500
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ARIZ -6500
81%
model margin ARIZ by 15.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NAU +31.5
55%
16.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 58.5
54%
model total 49.1
Elo NAU 1462 · ARIZ 1686
Portland State Vikings at San Diego State Aztecs
Sat, Sep 5, 9:30 PM ET · Snapdragon Stadium · 80° · Mostly cloudy
SDSU -40.5 · O/U 62.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
SDSU
79%
model margin SDSU by 14.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
PRST +40.5
59%
26.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 62.5
54%
model total 52.1
Elo PRST 1386 · SDSU 1584
Morgan State Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET · Mountain America Stadium · 98° · Intermittent clouds
ASU -43.5 · O/U 52.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ASU
78%
model margin ASU by 13.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MORG +43.5
60%
30.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 52.5
50%
model total 51.5
Elo MORG 1421 · ASU 1609
UNLV Rebels at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 82° · 12 mph wind · Intermittent clouds
UNLV -3 · O/U 55.5
UNLV -155 · HAW +130
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
HAW +130
54%
model margin HAW by 1.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
HAW +3
52%
4.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 55.5
51%
model total 57.5
Elo UNLV 1566 · HAW 1545SOS UNLV 1549 · HAW 1473
Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET · University Stadium (NM) · 85° · Mostly cloudy
UNM -10.5 · O/U 47.5
CMU +340 · UNM -440
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
UNM -440
74%
model margin UNM by 11.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
UNM -10.5
50%
0.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 47.5
51%
model total 45.5
Elo CMU 1468 · UNM 1614
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Sacramento State Hornets
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET · Hornet Stadium · 78° · Sunny
SAC -37.5 · O/U 56.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
MVSU
54%
model margin MVSU by 1.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MVSU +37.5
63%
39.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 56.5
50%
model total 55.2
UCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears
Sat, Sep 5, 10:30 PM ET · California Memorial Stadium · 66° · Mostly sunny
UCLA -2.5 · O/U 53.5
UCLA -135 · CAL +114
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
CAL +114
61%
model margin CAL by 5.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
CAL +2.5
53%
7.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 53.5
51%
model total 55.6
Elo UCLA 1463 · CAL 1500
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack
Sat, Sep 5, 10:30 PM ET · Mackay Stadium · 66° · 15 mph wind · Mostly sunny
WKU -1.5 · O/U 51.5
WKU -112 · NEV -108
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
WKU -112
58%
model margin WKU by 3.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
WKU -1.5
51%
2.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 51.5
52%
model total 46.5
Elo WKU 1542 · NEV 1423Weather -0.9 pts off the total
Washington State Cougars at #17Washington Huskies
Sun, Sep 6, 4:00 PM ET · Husky Stadium · 69° · Partly sunny
WASH -23.5 · O/U 51.5
WSU +1200 · WASH -2400
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
WASH -2400
69%
model margin WASH by 8.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
WSU +23.5
55%
14.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 51.5
52%
model total 46.2
Elo WSU 1598 · WASH 1702
Wisconsin Badgers vs #4Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET · Lambeau Field · 74° · Partly sunny
ND -20.5 · O/U 46.5
WIS +850 · ND -1450
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ND -1450
86%
model margin ND by 18.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
WIS +20.5
51%
1.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 46.5
51%
model total 44.6
Elo WIS 1519 · ND 1858
#24Louisville Cardinals vs #9Ole Miss Rebels
Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET · Nissan Stadium · 93° · 10 mph wind · Mostly sunny
MISS -6.5 · O/U 54.5
LOU +220 · MISS -270
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
MISS -270
68%
model margin MISS by 8.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
MISS -6.5
51%
1.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 54.5
51%
model total 58.5
Elo LOU 1688 · MISS 1832
#19SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles
Mon, Sep 7, 7:30 PM ET · Doak Campbell Stadium · 76° · 83% precip · Intermittent clouds
SMU -3 · O/U 53.5
SMU -155 · FSU +130
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
SMU -155
70%
model margin SMU by 9.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
SMU -3
52%
6.1 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 53.5
51%
model total 49.8
Elo SMU 1731 · FSU 1507Rest SMU 7d · FSU 9dWeather -1.5 pts off the total
Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated. Spread and total calls are model leans: in backtest the NFL model covers about 49% against closing lines, so they are tracked here in public, not sold as an edge — see the track record. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.