Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Adam Darby vs Patrick Rivera

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Adam Darbyby SUB64% to win · closed -395
Result: Adam Darby by KO/TKO in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Patrick Rivera
39% +155
Adam Darby
61% -155
How it ends
Rivera by KO/TKO
17.7%
fair +464
Rivera by SUB
11.9%
fair +739
Rivera by DEC
9.6%
fair +946
Darby by KO/TKO
23.5%
fair +326
Darby by SUB
21.7%
fair +362
Darby by DEC
15.7%
fair +539

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R140.4%fair +148
Ends in R222.2%fair +350
Ends in R312.2%fair +719
Goes distance25.2%fair +297
How this fight plays out

The model makes Darby a solid 61% favorite. Darby is most dangerous early — 4 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Darby's most likely path is by KO/TKO (23%), and the fight goes the distance 25% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.