Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Douglas Rodrigues vs Trent Miller

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Douglas Rodriguesby KO/TKO69% to win · closed -476
Result: Trent Miller by SUB in Round 2 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Trent Miller
34% +195
Douglas Rodrigues
66% -195
How it ends
Miller by KO/TKO
10.0%
fair +900
Miller by SUB
10.2%
fair +876
Miller by DEC
13.6%
fair +634
Rodrigues by KO/TKO
39.9%
fair +151
Rodrigues by SUB
9.5%
fair +955
Rodrigues by DEC
16.7%
fair +497

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R137.6%fair +166
Ends in R220.7%fair +384
Ends in R311.4%fair +779
Goes distance30.4%fair +229
How this fight plays out

The model makes Rodrigues a solid 66% favorite. Rodrigues is most dangerous early — 4 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Rodrigues's most likely path is by KO/TKO (40%), and the fight goes the distance 30% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.