Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Charlie Cleveland vs Gabriel Lourenço

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Charlie Clevelandby KO/TKO50% to win · closed -204
Result: Gabriel Lourenço by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Gabriel Lourenço
55% -123
Charlie Cleveland
45% +123
How it ends
Lourenço by KO/TKO
35.5%
fair +182
Lourenço by SUB
12.3%
fair +714
Lourenço by DEC
7.4%
fair +1256
Cleveland by KO/TKO
28.9%
fair +245
Cleveland by SUB
7.1%
fair +1303
Cleveland by DEC
8.8%
fair +1037

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R145.3%fair +121
Ends in R224.9%fair +302
Ends in R313.7%fair +631
Goes distance16.2%fair +518
How this fight plays out

The model makes Lourenço a narrow 55% favorite. Lourenço is most dangerous early — 7 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Lourenço's most likely path is by KO/TKO (35%), and the fight goes the distance 16% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Lourenço: 67% of Cleveland's wins come by knockout and 100% of Lourenço's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.