Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Jhonata Dinizby DEC
55% to win · 28% that it’s by DEC · 32% this goes the distance
Model fair price -123
Longest single script: Boser by KO/TKO(38.9%) — Diniz's win chances split across methods, so the other side's one likeliest path outscores each of theirs.The pick above is the predicted winner and their most likely method. But across all six winner-and-method combos, this one single outcome carries the most probability — worth a look on method-of-victory markets, where it usually pays plus-money.
Probetrics fight model
Tanner Boser
45% +123
Jhonata Diniz
55% -123
How it ends
Boser by KO/TKO
38.9%
fair +157
Boser by SUB
1.5%
fair +6487
Boser by DEC
4.5%
fair +2126
Diniz by KO/TKO
24.5%
fair +308
Diniz by SUB
2.7%
fair +3592
Diniz by DEC
27.8%
fair +259
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R136.5%fair +174
Ends in R220.1%fair +398
Ends in R311.0%fair +805
Goes distance32.3%fair +209
How this fight plays out
The model makes Diniz a narrow 55% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.6 vs 3.9 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Diniz is most dangerous early — 6 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Diniz's most likely path is on the scorecards (28%), and the fight goes the distance 32% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Diniz: 55% of Boser's wins come by knockout and 100% of Diniz's losses have come the same way.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
