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Model pick: Abubakar Vagaev (60%), locked before the start; Abubakar Vagaev won (graded a hit).
The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.
Big number: the model's chance of that ending. Small number under it: the books' no-vig chance (— where they don't price it). Tap a cell for fair and best prices.
Solid: the model. Dashed: the books' map. ◇ = a separate two-way price for the same thing: over 2.5 rounds 73% · goes the distance 69%.
Oldest to newest. Above the line: won; below: lost. Filled: ended early (K = KO/TKO, S = submission, then the round). Outline D: went to the judges. Tap a tile for the fight.
16 of 20 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 70% that it goes the distance, the books 67%. History, not a forecast.
No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Malkoun narrow at 53%. On the feet, Malkoun sets the tempo — 4.2 significant strikes a minute to 3.0 — so Vagaev needs moments, not volume. Vagaev tends to settle in for the long haul — 11 of 13 tracked fights reached the judges. Malkoun's most likely path is on the scorecards (27%), and the fight goes the distance 70% of the time.
Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
