Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Jose Miguel Delgado vs Austin Bashi

5:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Jose Miguel Delgadoby DEC52% to win · closed +126
Result: Jose Miguel Delgado by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Austin Bashi
50% -101
Jose Miguel Delgado
50% +101
How it ends
Bashi by KO/TKO
3.0%
fair +3265
Bashi by SUB
27.4%
fair +266
Bashi by DEC
20.0%
fair +400
Delgado by KO/TKO
12.7%
fair +685
Delgado by SUB
2.7%
fair +3645
Delgado by DEC
34.3%
fair +192

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R124.7%fair +305
Ends in R213.6%fair +636
Ends in R37.5%fair +1239
Goes distance54.3%fair -119
How this fight plays out

The model makes Bashi a narrow 50% favorite. Expect Bashi to chase the takedown (4.9/15 min at 35%) while Delgado tries to keep it standing behind 59% takedown defense. Bashi is most dangerous early — 4 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Bashi's most likely path is by submission (27%), and the fight goes the distance 54% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.