Track records
Last graded
Record by sport
77 graded · 90% range 52–70%expected 49.4 wins
Same 77 priced games, winners only. When we took the other side: 2–4.
By method: model alone 20–13 (33), market-anchored 27–17 (44).
390 graded · 90% range 75–82%expected 294.0 wins
Same 338 priced games, winners only. When we took the other side: 10–25.
By method: model alone 225–48 (273), market-anchored 82–35 (117).
No graded picks yet: the first locked pick grades after it is played.Backtest, not in the record: 65.0% of 7,233 games (walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2020–25).
28 graded (under 30: a few games move this a lot) · 90% range 56–83%
Same 16 priced games, winners only. When we took the other side: 0–1.
By method: model alone 12–3 (15), market-anchored 8–5 (13).
No graded picks yet: the first locked pick grades after it is played.Backtest, not in the record: 71.2% of 31,827 games (walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2020–25).
87 graded · 90% range 54–71%expected 51.1 wins
Same 85 priced games, winners only.
124 graded · 90% range 63–76%expected 80.1 wins
Same 119 priced games, winners only. When we took the other side: 8–8.
By method: model alone 69–31 (100), market-anchored 18–6 (24).
Each sport is its own product with its own sample, so the records are not added into one headline percentage. Under 30 graded picks a record is shown as won–lost and marked too early to read. Every counted pick, one row each →
All sports pooled: the charts, without a headline number
Pooled across products with different methods and sample sizes, so no single win rate is quoted. On the 635 counted games that had a price, the betting favorite won 471 and our picks won 453; on the 58 where we took the other side we won 20.
Expected vs actual winners · every sportThe dashed line is the wins its own probabilities expected, shaded for luck's 90% band. Solid is what happened.
The solid line ends above the shaded band: the record is running ahead of what its probabilities said.
Show as a table
| After pick | Date | Won | Expected | 90% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | Sep 5 | 70 | 57.7 | 50.6–64.8 |
| 177 | Sep 12 | 141 | 125.4 | 115.9–134.8 |
| 265 | Sep 19 | 211 | 192.6 | 181.3–203.8 |
| 353 | Sep 26 | 280 | 257.0 | 244.0–270.0 |
| 441 | Sep 29 | 338 | 318.4 | 303.7–333.0 |
| 530 | Oct 3 | 399 | 378.7 | 362.5–395.0 |
| 618 | Oct 9 | 455 | 433.7 | 415.9–451.4 |
| 706 | Oct 12 | 516 | 493.0 | 473.9–512.1 |
Every sport: when it said 70%, did it win 70%?Each lane is a confidence band. Calibrated means the dot lands in its gray band; the bar shows luck's range.
- Said 50–60%56% won 123 of 22090% range 50–61%
- Said 60–70%71% won 121 of 17190% range 65–76%
- Said 70–80%77% won 109 of 14290% range 70–82%
- Said 80–90%92% won 79 of 8690% range 86–96%
- Said 90–100%97% won 84 of 8790% range 92–99%
Live picks, locked before the start. Lanes with fewer than 10 graded picks are faded.
Past results are not a promise of future returns. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.