Model Track Record
Every prediction scored against what actually happened — winners, method of victory, distance calls — broken down by event with running totals. Reconstructed from pre-game data only; no hindsight, no cherry-picking. The ledger only grows.
Winner picked
10/14 71%
the fighter the model favored won
Exact call
6/14 43%
winner AND method both right (6-way outcome)
Distance call
13/14 93%
went/didn't go the distance as predicted
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 22026-07-12 · winners 10/14 · exact 6/14
| Fight | Model pick | Top outcome | Actual | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista vs Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista 60% | Mario Bautista by DEC (34%) | Mario Bautista by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Lone'er Kavanagh vs Brandon Royval | Lone'er Kavanagh 56% | Lone'er Kavanagh by DEC (35%) | Brandon Royval by SUB · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway | Max Holloway 60% | Max Holloway by DEC (29%) | Max Holloway by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Terrance Mckinney vs King Green | Terrance Mckinney 68% | Terrance Mckinney by KO/TKO (32%) | King Green by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Benoit Saint-Denis vs Paddy Pimblett | Benoit Saint-Denis 75% | Benoit Saint-Denis by SUB (37%) | Paddy Pimblett by SUB · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Farid Basharat vs John Garza | Farid Basharat 76% | Farid Basharat by DEC (42%) | Farid Basharat by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whittaker | Nikita Krylov 67% | Nikita Krylov by KO/TKO (29%) | Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Zach Reese vs Ryan Gandra | Ryan Gandra 54% | Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO (31%) | Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Adrian Yanez vs Cody Garbrandt | Adrian Yanez 70% | Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO (42%) | Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Wang Cong vs Tracy Cortez | Wang Cong 56% | Tracy Cortez by DEC (32%) | Wang Cong by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
| Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden | Alessandro Costa 63% | Alessandro Costa by SUB (23%) | Alessandro Costa by SUB · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas | Damian Pinas 73% | Damian Pinas by KO/TKO (37%) | Damian Pinas by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ |
| Kai Kamaka vs Luke Riley | Luke Riley 64% | Luke Riley by DEC (35%) | Luke Riley by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ |
| Elisha Ellison vs Gable Steveson | Gable Steveson 54% | Elisha Ellison by KO/TKO (28%) | Gable Steveson by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ |
Scored automatically the morning after each card. "Exact" requires the single most likely outcome (winner + method) to hit — a 6-way call where always guessing favorite-by-decision runs ~26%. Model is experimental; informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
UFC scores automatically the morning after each card. Prop-sport scoring (MLB hit-rate and projection grading) joins this page next. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.