Model Track Record
Every prediction scored against what actually happened — fight winners, methods, and rounds vs results — broken down by event with running totals. The headline record counts only picks locked before the opening bell; anything scored after the fact is marked BACKTEST and left out of it. No cherry-picking — the ledger only grows.
Winner picked
47/67 70%
the fighter the model favored won
Exact call
23/67 34%
winner AND method both right (6-way outcome)
Distance call
41/67 61%
went/didn't go the distance as predicted
$100 / winner pick
+$377
$100 single on every winner pick at the best closing moneyline (60 priced)
$100 / exact call
−$694
$100 on every winner-plus-method call at documented method-of-victory prices (3 winning calls unpriced, excluded)
Not counted above: 25 graded bouts had no prediction locked before the fight — an early card we scored retroactively, plus bouts a data fault left unlocked. Rebuilt with the same model but reading profiles the card itself has since filled in, they carry hindsight the locked picks do not; they appear per-event marked BACKTEST. 9 graded picks are from development cards (Contender Series) — locked before the fights like any other, but most of those fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the picks run largely on career records and priors. Their cards are graded below, separately. Every headline number on this page is locked picks from main UFC cards only.
Favorites vs. underdogs
Picked the betting favorite 50 times → 39 won
Picked the underdog 10 times → 4 won
Over/under rounds calls → 22 of 48 right
Anyone can win picking favorites. Underdog wins are what prove the model sees something the odds don't.
Do the percentages hold up?
When the model says 50–60% → won 13 of 26 (50%)
When the model says 60–70% → won 17 of 22 (77%)
When the model says 70%+ → won 17 of 19 (89%)
If the win rate roughly matches what the model claimed, the percentages are real. Still a small sample — judge after a few cards.
Is it running hot or cold?
Winner picks — model forecast 43.1, actual 47 (+3.9 vs forecast)
Exact calls — model forecast 24.3, actual 23 (-1.3 vs forecast)
Every pick carries a probability; add them up and you get the number of hits the model expects. Beating it is luck, not skill — the ledger is currently ahead of forecast, so expect the headline rate to fall toward 64% as the sample grows.
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3 2026-08-25Winners 4/5Exact 2/5Distance 5/5Rounds 2/5ML +$32Method +$197
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Method parlay: all 5 exact calls parlayed would have lost (3 of 5 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score | $100 P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Apodaca vs Bella Mir | Bella Mir 74% | -3300opened -1430 | Bella Mir by DEC (40%)+1200 | Alex Apodaca by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Guilherme Uriel vs Mario Piazzon | Guilherme Uriel 52% | -148 | Guilherme Uriel by KO/TKO (27%)+143 | Guilherme Uriel by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$68Mth −$100 |
| Sean Clancy Jr. vs Gary Balletto | Sean Clancy Jr. 72% | -1100opened -770 | Sean Clancy Jr. by KO/TKO (53%)-130 | Sean Clancy Jr. by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$9Mth +$77 |
| Alexis Miranda vs Ronald Humphrey | Ronald Humphrey 73% | -1100opened -675 | Ronald Humphrey by DEC (33%)+1300 | Ronald Humphrey by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$9Mth −$100 |
| Nick Galanti vs Carlos Petruzzella | Nick Galanti 58% | -215opened -205 | Nick Galanti by KO/TKO (29%)+420 | Nick Galanti by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$47Mth +$420 |
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22Winners 6/11Exact 2/11Distance 6/11Rounds 3/5ML −$277Method −$780
Method parlay: all 11 exact calls parlayed would have lost (9 of 11 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score | $100 P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeisla Chaves vs Carli Judice | Carli Judice 65% | -575 | Carli Judice by DEC (29%)+130 | Carli Judice by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML +$17Mth −$100 |
| Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze | Reinier de Ridder 67% | -370 | Reinier de Ridder by DEC (29%)+130 | Reinier de Ridder by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$27Mth −$100 |
| Mason Jones vs MarQuel Mederos | Mason Jones 64% | -340 | Mason Jones by DEC (37%)+120 | MarQuel Mederos by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Jackson McVey vs Wes Schultz | Wes Schultz 53% | +156 | Wes Schultz by SUB (37%)+310 | Jackson McVey by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed | Shanelle Dyer 75% | -700 | Shanelle Dyer by KO/TKO (42%)+120 | Shanelle Dyer by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$14Mth +$120 |
| Stan Dorsainvil vs Gauge Young | Stan Dorsainvil 58% | — | Stan Dorsainvil by DEC (30%) | Stan Dorsainvil by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✗ | — |
| Nasrat Haqparast vs Chris Padilla | Chris Padilla 56% | -115opened -105 | Chris Padilla by KO/TKO (30%)+480 | Chris Padilla by SUB · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$87Mth −$100 |
| Lerryan Douglas vs Jamall Emmers | Lerryan Douglas 65% | -362opened -345 | Lerryan Douglas by KO/TKO (49%)-175 | Jamall Emmers by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez | Anthony Hernandez 57% | -195opened -168 | Anthony Hernandez by SUB (23%)+267 | Gregory Rodrigues by DEC · R5 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Vitor Petrino vs Serghei Spivac | Vitor Petrino 69% | -130opened -170 | Vitor Petrino by KO/TKO (41%)+215 | Vitor Petrino by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML +$77Mth −$100 |
| Shamil Gaziev vs Kennedy Nzechukwu | Kennedy Nzechukwu 60% | +110opened +102 | Kennedy Nzechukwu by KO/TKO (48%)+210 | Shamil Gaziev by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 2 2026-08-18Winners 2/4Exact 2/4Distance 3/4Rounds 3/4ML −$7Method +$280
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
Method parlay: all 4 exact calls parlayed would have lost (2 of 4 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score | $100 P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Namo Fazil vs Kaik Brito | Kaik Brito 51% | +155 | Kaik Brito by KO/TKO (44%)+340 | Kaik Brito by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$155Mth +$340 |
| Cristian Perez vs Logan Paxton | Cristian Perez 59% | -260opened -225 | Cristian Perez by KO/TKO (39%)+140 | Cristian Perez by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$38Mth +$140 |
| Mahamed Aly vs Alik Lorenz | Mahamed Aly 61% | -310opened -350 | Mahamed Aly by KO/TKO (50%)+155 | Alik Lorenz by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Taner Trembley vs Roman Puga | Taner Trembley 51% | +136opened -110 | Taner Trembley by KO/TKO (20%)+1000 | Roman Puga by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15Winners 5/12Exact 3/12Distance 7/12Rounds 2/4ML −$296Method −$525
Method parlay: all 12 exact calls parlayed would have lost (9 of 12 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score | $100 P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Álvarez vs Chidi Njokuani | Joel Álvarez 59% | — | Joel Álvarez by KO/TKO (32%) | Chidi Njokuani by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ | —Mth −$100 |
| Esteban Ribovics vs Edson Barboza | Esteban Ribovics 74% | -700 | Esteban Ribovics by DEC (35%)+330 | Esteban Ribovics by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML +$14Mth −$100 |
| Eric McConico vs Donte Johnson | Donte Johnson 80% | -305 | Donte Johnson by KO/TKO (64%)-105 | Donte Johnson by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$33Mth +$95 |
| Tresean Gore vs Vicente Luque | Vicente Luque 52% | -102 | Vicente Luque by DEC (23%)+470 | Tresean Gore by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Eduardo Chapolin vs Charles Johnson | Eduardo Chapolin 60% | — | Eduardo Chapolin by DEC (38%) | Charles Johnson by SUB · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ | —Mth −$100 |
| Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias | Lucas Fernando 63% | -280 | Lucas Fernando by KO/TKO (44%)+120 | Lucas Fernando by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$36Mth +$120 |
| Ramiz Brahimaj vs Neil Magny | Ramiz Brahimaj 69% | -145 | Ramiz Brahimaj by SUB (46%)+150 | Neil Magny by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Myktybek Orolbai vs Jeremiah Wells | Myktybek Orolbai 78% | -1100 | Myktybek Orolbai by DEC (41%)+230 | Jeremiah Wells by SUB · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Ian Machado Garry vs Islam Makhachev | Islam Makhachev 59% | -325opened -345 | Islam Makhachev by DEC (27%)+160 | Islam Makhachev by DEC · R5 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$31Mth +$160 |
| Gillian Robertson vs Mackenzie Dern | Gillian Robertson 51% | +203opened +180 | Gillian Robertson by DEC (33%)+310 | Mackenzie Dern by DEC · R5 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus | Mansur Abdul-Malik 69% | -650 | Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO (36%)-110 | Dustin Stoltzfus by SUB · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Kauê Fernandes vs Jalin Turner | Jalin Turner 51% | -110opened -150 | Jalin Turner by DEC (21%)+750 | Jalin Turner by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$91Mth −$100 |
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 1 2026-08-11Winners 0/0Exact 0/0Distance 0/0
Development card — graded like any other, but excluded from the running totals above: most of these fighters have little or no tracked tape, so the model prices them mostly off career records and division priors.
5 of these 5 bouts had no pick locked before the fight. They are marked BACKTEST below and are excluded from the totals above.
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score | $100 P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Adams vs Anthony WintBACKTEST | Anthony Wint 71% | -1163 | Anthony Wint by KO/TKO (47%) | Anthony Wint by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$9 |
| Fabrizio Escarrega vs Abe AlsaghirBACKTEST | Abe Alsaghir 54% | +115 | Abe Alsaghir by KO/TKO (29%) | Abe Alsaghir by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML +$115Mth −$100 |
| Mridul Saikia vs Bilal HasanBACKTEST | Bilal Hasan 75% | -2941 | Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO (47%) | Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$3 |
| Ananias Mulumba vs Tom PagliaruloBACKTEST | Tom Pagliarulo 53% | +135 | Tom Pagliarulo by KO/TKO (31%) | Tom Pagliarulo by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$135 |
| Jon Kunneman vs Joe KropschotBACKTEST | Jon Kunneman 57% | -202 | Jon Kunneman by SUB (29%) | Joe Kropschot by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08Winners 5/6Exact 2/6Distance 4/6Rounds 1/2ML +$107Method −$275
6 of these 12 bouts had no pick locked before the fight. They are marked BACKTEST below and are excluded from the totals above.
Method parlay: all 6 exact calls parlayed would have lost (4 of 6 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score | $100 P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Montanha vs Louie SutherlandBACKTEST | Louie Sutherland 52% | +189 | Louie Sutherland by DEC (27%) | José Montanha by SUB · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Richie Miranda vs Manoel SousaBACKTEST | Manoel Sousa 61% | -300 | Manoel Sousa by DEC (27%) | Manoel Sousa by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$33 |
| Ravena Oliveira vs Juliana MillerBACKTEST | Juliana Miller 60% | -300 | Juliana Miller by DEC (25%) | Juliana Miller by SUB · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$33Mth −$100 |
| Carol Foro vs Gigi CanutoBACKTEST | Carol Foro 63% | -186 | Carol Foro by DEC (34%) | Carol Foro by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$54 |
| Yadier del Valle vs Darren ElkinsBACKTEST | Yadier del Valle 66% | — | Yadier del Valle by DEC (37%) | Yadier del Valle by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | —Mth −$100 |
| Gianni Vazquez vs Miles JohnsBACKTEST | Miles Johns 56% | -104 | Miles Johns by DEC (43%) | Miles Johns by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML +$96Mth −$100 |
| Billy Ray Goff vs Ty Miller | Ty Miller 62% | — | Ty Miller by DEC (33%) | Ty Miller by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | —Mth −$100 |
| Alexia Thainara vs Amanda Lemos | Alexia Thainara 76% | — | Alexia Thainara by DEC (41%) | Alexia Thainara by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | — |
| Billy Quarantillo vs Diego Ferreira | Billy Quarantillo 55% | — | Billy Quarantillo by KO/TKO (33%) | Diego Ferreira by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ | —Mth −$100 |
| Quillan Salkilld vs Mateusz Gamrot | Quillan Salkilld 59% | — | Quillan Salkilld by DEC (31%) | Quillan Salkilld by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | —Mth −$100 |
| Bruno Lopes vs Diyar Nurgozhay | Diyar Nurgozhay 62% | -143opened -150 | Diyar Nurgozhay by KO/TKO (45%)+125 | Diyar Nurgozhay by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$70Mth +$125 |
| Guilherme Pat vs Steven Asplund | Steven Asplund 60% | -270 | Steven Asplund by KO/TKO (33%)+150 | Steven Asplund by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML +$37Mth −$100 |
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01Winners 10/14Exact 5/14Distance 9/14Rounds 6/14ML −$49Method −$99
Method parlay: all 14 exact calls parlayed would have lost (9 of 14 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score | $100 P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Vologdin vs Borislav Nikolic | Borislav Nikolic 56% | -186opened -178 | Borislav Nikolic by DEC (37%)+210 | Borislav Nikolic by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$54Mth +$210 |
| Alexander Poppeck vs Jovan Leka | Jovan Leka 61% | -250opened -223 | Jovan Leka by KO/TKO (34%)+280 | Jovan Leka by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$40Mth +$280 |
| Stephanie Luciano vs Marina Spasić | Stephanie Luciano 61% | -325 | Stephanie Luciano by DEC (36%)-120 | Stephanie Luciano by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML +$31Mth −$100 |
| Noah Gugnon vs Milos Janicic | Milos Janicic 50% | +100opened +108 | Milos Janicic by DEC (25%)+650 | Noah Gugnon by SUB · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Daniel Rodriguez vs Uroš Medić | Uroš Medić 68% | -355opened -298 | Uroš Medić by KO/TKO (45%)-240 | Uroš Medić by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$28Mth +$42 |
| Gilbert Urbina vs Vlasto Čepo | Vlasto Čepo 66% | -300opened -340 | Vlasto Čepo by KO/TKO (49%)-210 | Gilbert Urbina by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Marcin Tybura vs Aleksandar Rakic | Aleksandar Rakic 68% | -335opened -305 | Aleksandar Rakic by DEC (33%)+191 | Aleksandar Rakic by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✗ | ML +$30Mth +$191 |
| Bogdan Grad vs Dennis Buzukja | Bogdan Grad 60% | -178opened -192 | Bogdan Grad by DEC (26%)+175 | Bogdan Grad by SUB · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$56Mth −$100 |
| Michael Oliveira vs Oban Elliott | Michael Oliveira 70% | -325opened -340 | Michael Oliveira by KO/TKO (51%)-127 | Michael Oliveira by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$31Mth +$79 |
| Hailey Cowan vs Nina Milošević | Nina Milošević 74% | -455opened -395 | Nina Milošević by DEC (34%)+163 | Nina Milošević by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML +$22Mth −$100 |
| Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rębecki | Mateusz Rębecki 73% | -450opened -355 | Mateusz Rębecki by DEC (36%)+230 | Mateusz Rębecki by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$22Mth −$100 |
| Robert Valentin vs Duško Todorović | Duško Todorović 56% | +150opened +110 | Duško Todorović by KO/TKO (34%)+410 | Robert Valentin by SUB · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Navajo Stirling vs Jan Blachowicz | Navajo Stirling 80% | -270opened -203 | Navajo Stirling by DEC (40%)+112 | Navajo Stirling by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$37Mth −$100 |
| Tofiq Musayev vs Ludovit Klein | Ludovit Klein 70% | -227opened -257 | Ludovit Klein by DEC (55%)+135 | Tofiq Musayev by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25Winners 12/12Exact 7/12Distance 9/12Rounds 5/11ML +$633Method +$591
Method parlay: all 12 exact calls parlayed would have lost (5 of 12 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score | $100 P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul Hussein vs Cody Gibson | Abdul Hussein 81% | -456opened -490 | Abdul Hussein by SUB (46%)+185 | Abdul Hussein by SUB · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$22Mth +$185 |
| Muhammad Said vs Dustin Jacoby | Muhammad Said 67% | +172opened +156 | Muhammad Said by KO/TKO (34%)+400 | Muhammad Said by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$172Mth +$400 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev vs Abubakar Vagaev | Abubakar Vagaev 51% | -182opened -218 | Abubakar Vagaev by DEC (45%)-115 | Abubakar Vagaev by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$55Mth +$87 |
| Brendson Ribeiro vs Magomed Tuchalov | Magomed Tuchalov 80% | -733opened -590 | Magomed Tuchalov by KO/TKO (58%)-250 | Magomed Tuchalov by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML +$14Mth −$100 |
| Thomas Petersen vs Valter Walker | Valter Walker 62% | -170opened -270 | Valter Walker by KO/TKO (34%)+650 | Valter Walker by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$59Mth −$100 |
| Bogdan Guskov vs Magomed Ankalaev | Magomed Ankalaev 63% | -488opened -460 | Magomed Ankalaev by DEC (35%)+450 | Magomed Ankalaev by KO/TKO · R5 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$20Mth −$100 |
| Damian Rzepecki vs Magomed Zaynukov | Magomed Zaynukov 57% | -335 | Magomed Zaynukov by DEC (29%) | Magomed Zaynukov by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✗ | ML +$30 |
| Ramazonbek Temirov vs Stephen Erceg | Ramazonbek Temirov 56% | -102opened +110 | Ramazonbek Temirov by DEC (28%) | Ramazonbek Temirov by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML +$98Mth −$100 |
| Sam Patterson vs Santiago Ponzinibbio | Sam Patterson 67% | -426opened -425 | Sam Patterson by KO/TKO (36%)+115 | Sam Patterson by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$23Mth +$115 |
| Tyrell Fortune vs Rizvan Kuniev | Rizvan Kuniev 60% | -278opened -275 | Rizvan Kuniev by KO/TKO (32%)+200 | Rizvan Kuniev by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$36Mth +$200 |
| Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev | Nurullo Aliev 75% | -222opened -150 | Nurullo Aliev by DEC (58%)+104 | Nurullo Aliev by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$45Mth +$104 |
| Axel Sola vs Ismael Bonfim | Axel Sola 71% | -170opened -200 | Axel Sola by KO/TKO (40%)+205 | Axel Sola by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$59Mth −$100 |
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18Winners 9/12Exact 4/12Distance 6/12Rounds 5/12ML +$259Method +$394
Method parlay: all 12 exact calls parlayed would have lost (8 of 12 legs missed).
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score | $100 P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis | Dricus Du Plessis 61% | -194opened -258 | Dricus Du Plessis by SUB (25%)+1000 | Dricus Du Plessis by DEC · R5 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML +$52Mth −$100 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan vs Jared Cannonier | Christian Leroy Duncan 76% | -303opened -295 | Christian Leroy Duncan by KO/TKO (48%)+190 | Christian Leroy Duncan by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML +$33Mth −$100 |
| Mitch Ramirez vs Chase Hooper | Chase Hooper 81% | -335opened -300 | Chase Hooper by KO/TKO (29%)+360 | Chase Hooper by SUB · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$30Mth −$100 |
| Fatima Kline vs Tabatha Ricci | Fatima Kline 64% | -417opened -325 | Fatima Kline by DEC (39%)-170 | Fatima Kline by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$24Mth +$59 |
| Alberto Montes vs Tommy McMillen | Tommy McMillen 72% | -175opened -102 | Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO (32%)+285 | Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$57Mth +$285 |
| Damien Anderson vs Ezra Elliott | Ezra Elliott 56% | +113opened +114 | Ezra Elliott by SUB (24%)+300 | Ezra Elliott by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML +$113Mth −$100 |
| Dione Barbosa vs Anna Melisano | Anna Melisano 59% | +488 | Anna Melisano by DEC (39%)+1050 | Dione Barbosa by SUB · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Alvin Hines vs RJ Harris | RJ Harris 73% | +108opened +120 | RJ Harris by DEC (29%)+525 | RJ Harris by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML +$108Mth −$100 |
| Jose Miguel Delgado vs Austin Bashi | Jose Miguel Delgado 52% | +126opened -120 | Jose Miguel Delgado by DEC (22%)+550 | Jose Miguel Delgado by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$126Mth +$550 |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko | Seokhyeon Ko 51% | -156opened -200 | Seokhyeon Ko by KO/TKO (31%)+450 | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by DEC · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✗ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Felipe Franco vs Levi Rodrigues | Levi Rodrigues 51% | -144opened -180 | Levi Rodrigues by KO/TKO (23%)-108 | Felipe Franco by KO/TKO · R2 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Stewart Nicoll vs Alden Coria | Alden Coria 79% | -609opened -900 | Alden Coria by DEC (29%)+300 | Alden Coria by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✗ | ML +$16Mth +$300 |
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11Winners 0/0Exact 0/0Distance 0/0
14 of these 14 bouts had no pick locked before the fight. They are marked BACKTEST below and are excluded from the totals above.
| Fight | Model pick | Odds | Top outcome | Actual | Score | $100 P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista vs Cory SandhagenBACKTEST | Mario Bautista 60% | +125 | Mario Bautista by DEC (34%)+175 | Mario Bautista by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$125Mth +$175 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh vs Brandon RoyvalBACKTEST | Lone'er Kavanagh 56% | -215 | Lone'er Kavanagh by DEC (35%)+145 | Brandon Royval by SUB · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Conor McGregor vs Max HollowayBACKTEST | Max Holloway 60% | -280 | Max Holloway by KO/TKO (21%)-120 | Max Holloway by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$36Mth +$83 |
| Terrance Mckinney vs King GreenBACKTEST | Terrance Mckinney 68% | +100 | Terrance Mckinney by KO/TKO (32%)+200 | King Green by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Benoit Saint-Denis vs Paddy PimblettBACKTEST | Benoit Saint-Denis 75% | -125 | Benoit Saint-Denis by SUB (37%)+330 | Paddy Pimblett by SUB · R1 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Farid Basharat vs John GarzaBACKTEST | Farid Basharat 76% | -620 | Farid Basharat by DEC (42%)+165 | Farid Basharat by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$16Mth +$165 |
| Nikita Krylov vs Robert WhittakerBACKTEST | Nikita Krylov 67% | +120 | Nikita Krylov by KO/TKO (29%)+380 | Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO · R3 | Winner ✗Exact ✗Dist ✓ | ML −$100Mth −$100 |
| Zach Reese vs Ryan GandraBACKTEST | Ryan Gandra 54% | -134 | Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO (31%)+106 | Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$75Mth +$106 |
| Adrian Yanez vs Cody GarbrandtBACKTEST | Adrian Yanez 70% | -360 | Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO (42%)-115 | Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$28Mth +$87 |
| Wang Cong vs Tracy CortezBACKTEST | Wang Cong 56% | -115 | Wang Cong by DEC (27%)+190 | Wang Cong by DEC · R3 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$87Mth +$190 |
| Alessandro Costa vs Cody DurdenBACKTEST | Alessandro Costa 63% | -218 | Alessandro Costa by SUB (23%)+380 | Alessandro Costa by SUB · R2 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$46Mth +$380 |
| Cesar Almeida vs Damian PinasBACKTEST | Damian Pinas 73% | -235 | Damian Pinas by KO/TKO (37%)+280 | Damian Pinas by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$43Mth +$280 |
| Kai Kamaka vs Luke RileyBACKTEST | Luke Riley 64% | -220 | Luke Riley by KO/TKO (35%)+225 | Luke Riley by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✗ | ML +$45Mth +$225 |
| Elisha Ellison vs Gable StevesonBACKTEST | Gable Steveson 54% | -1350 | Gable Steveson by KO/TKO (28%)-225 | Gable Steveson by KO/TKO · R1 | Winner ✓Exact ✓Dist ✓ | ML +$7Mth +$44 |
Scored automatically the morning after each card. "Exact" requires the single most likely outcome (winner + method) to hit — a 6-way call where always guessing favorite-by-decision runs ~26%. "ML" P/L assumes a $100 single on every model winner pick at the best moneyline quoted at close. "Method" P/L assumes $100 on the exact winner-plus-method call at documented method-of-victory closing prices; our odds feed carries no MMA method markets, so those prices are sourced from published sportsbook props — winning calls with no documented price are excluded (which can only understate the total). Prices marked "R1 KO" or "UD" are the nearest documented market variant — bets that also won, priced slightly differently than the plain method call. Hold-out results, not a promise of future returns. Model is experimental; informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
UFC grades the morning after each card. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.