Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Gillian Robertson vs Mackenzie Dern

9:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Gillian Robertsonby DEC51% to win · closed +203
Result: Mackenzie Dern by DEC in Round 5 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Mackenzie Dern
45% +123
Gillian Robertson
55% -123
How it ends
Dern by KO/TKO
1.9%
fair +5178
Dern by SUB
7.2%
fair +1291
Dern by DEC
35.7%
fair +180
Robertson by KO/TKO
14.8%
fair +576
Robertson by SUB
2.4%
fair +4093
Robertson by DEC
38.1%
fair +163

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R112.1%fair +728
Ends in R26.6%fair +1406
Ends in R33.7%fair +2637
Ends in R42.5%fair +3882
Ends in R51.4%fair +7139
Goes distance73.7%fair -281
How this fight plays out

The model makes Robertson a narrow 55% favorite. Striking volume is near even (3.5 vs 3.0 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Dern tends to settle in for the long haul — 9 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Robertson's most likely path is on the scorecards (38%), and the fight goes the distance 74% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.