Édgar Cháirez vs Tim Elliott
2:00 PM ET· final“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Cháirez a solid 60% favorite. Expect Elliott to chase the takedown (2.9/15 min at 33%) while Cháirez tries to keep it standing behind 48% takedown defense. Cháirez is most dangerous early — 5 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Cháirez's most likely path is by submission (41%), and the fight goes the distance 33% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Cháirez: Elliott finishes 36% of wins by submission and Cháirez has been submitted in 33% of losses.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.