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College Basketball track record · Model

How the College Basketball model is tested

The method itself isn't published here. What is published: every pick is locked before tipoff and graded after, the model is evaluated on games it never saw, and a change only ships if it holds up there. Winners are the record: the pick is the side the model favors, with the probability it gives that side. When sportsbooks price a game, that probability follows the betting market's price: in testing, the market beat the ratings alone, so the ratings (adjusted for each team's recent lineup) decide only games the books don't price. See the NBA model for the other league's numbers.

Backtest

Walk-forward: every game priced from ratings that have seen only the games before it, fixed before these seasons were ever scored. This is the ratings alone; anchored to the market's price, as picks are published now, held-out games 2020–25 went 73.0%.

Backtest winners · ratings aloneEvery game priced only from what was known before it, then scored once. Kept apart from the record.

Walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2020–25: not in the record
Won–lost
22,672–9,155
Win rateWhere the true win rate likely sits (90% range). Under 30 picks, too early to read.
71.2%
90% range 70.8–71.7%
Graded
31,827
picks
Win rate 71.2%90% range

For scale: always picking the home team would have won 63.6% of the same games.

Calibration

When the model gives a side 70%, that side should win about 70% of the time. The lanes put the live picks (thin so far: basketball picks started grading this season) beside the backtest for each band.

When it said 70%, did it win 70%?Each lane is a confidence band. Calibrated means the dot lands in its gray band; the bar shows luck's range.

backtest
  • Said 50–60%
    backtest 53.7% of 7,414
  • Said 60–70%
    backtest 62.7% of 7,344
  • Said 70–80%
    backtest 73.2% of 6,976
  • Said 80–90%
    backtest 84.7% of 5,985
  • Said 90–100%
    backtest 95.2% of 4,108
The band it statedBacktest win rate

Backtest: walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2020–25, not in the record.

Live record

Winners calledOnly picks locked before the start count. A pick made later, or priced after the fact, never enters it.

Locked before the start, graded after

No graded picks yet: the first locked College Basketball game grades after it goes final.

Every graded pick, the ledger and expected vs actual winners →

What we don't publish

The method, its parameters, and what was tried and rejected are not published — that's the part of the work we keep to ourselves. What's always public is the result: every pick locked pre-game, graded after, calibration shown honestly, and nothing about the record edited after the fact.

For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.