Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Mauricio Ruffy vs Arman Tsarukyan

9:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Arman Tsarukyanby KO/TKO59% to win · closed -294
Result: Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Arman Tsarukyan
61% -154
Mauricio Ruffy
39% +154
How it ends
Tsarukyan by KO/TKO
32.3%
fair +209
Tsarukyan by SUB
19.7%
fair +407
Tsarukyan by DEC
8.7%
fair +1056
Ruffy by KO/TKO
25.5%
fair +292
Ruffy by SUB
1.7%
fair +5724
Ruffy by DEC
12.1%
fair +729

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R136.5%fair +174
Ends in R220.1%fair +399
Ends in R311.0%fair +807
Ends in R47.6%fair +1219
Ends in R54.2%fair +2298
Goes distance20.7%fair +383
How this fight plays out

The model makes Tsarukyan a solid 61% favorite. Expect Tsarukyan to chase the takedown (3.1/15 min at 35%) while Ruffy tries to keep it standing behind 88% takedown defense. Ruffy is most dangerous early — 7 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Tsarukyan's most likely path is by KO/TKO (32%), and the fight goes the distance 21% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.