Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Alexia Thainara vs Amanda Lemos

5:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Alexia Thainaraby DEC76% to win
Result: Alexia Thainara by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Amanda Lemos
16% +532
Alexia Thainara
84% -532
How it ends
Lemos by KO/TKO
0.9%
fair +11606
Lemos by SUB
1.5%
fair +6659
Lemos by DEC
13.5%
fair +641
Thainara by KO/TKO
1.7%
fair +5840
Thainara by SUB
29.9%
fair +235
Thainara by DEC
52.6%
fair -111

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R118.3%fair +446
Ends in R210.1%fair +893
Ends in R35.5%fair +1706
Goes distance66.1%fair -195
How this fight plays out

The model makes Thainara a clear 84% favorite. Expect Thainara to chase the takedown (3.5/15 min at 53%) while Lemos tries to keep it standing behind 63% takedown defense. Thainara's most likely path is on the scorecards (53%), and the fight goes the distance 66% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.