WNBA: every call, graded
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Last graded
Winners calledOnly picks locked before the start count. A pick made later, or priced after the fact, never enters it.
Locked before the start, graded afterOn games with a price, the win chance is built on the betting market's number, so these picks usually match the favorite.
No open picks: the next games lock before tipoff.
Recent formThe same winners record, sliced: the latest picks, then longer stretches. Short stretches swing a lot.
Every graded pick
- WNBAOct 31, 8:00 PM
Atlanta Dream63
Golden State Valkyries68WNBA · Oct 31, 8:00 PMGS51%✓✓ Won - WNBAOct 29, 12:30 PMGolden State Valkyries69Atlanta Dream80WNBA · Oct 29, 12:30 PMATL63%✓✓ Won
- WNBAOct 26, 8:00 PMAtlanta Dream55Golden State Valkyries64WNBA · Oct 26, 8:00 PMATL51%✗✗ Lost
- WNBAOct 24, 1:00 PMGolden State Valkyries67Atlanta Dream62WNBA · Oct 24, 1:00 PMATL64%✗✗ Lost
- WNBAOct 21, 8:00 PMGolden State Valkyries71Atlanta Dream97WNBA · Oct 21, 8:00 PMATL61%✓✓ Won
- WNBAOct 19, 8:00 PMAtlanta Dream79Golden State Valkyries65WNBA · Oct 19, 8:00 PMGS54%✗✗ Lost
- WNBAOct 17, 3:30 PMAtlanta Dream64Golden State Valkyries68WNBA · Oct 17, 3:30 PMGS56%✓✓ Won
- WNBAOct 9, 9:30 PMGolden State Valkyries87
Las Vegas Aces77WNBA · Oct 9, 9:30 PMLV63%✗✗ Lost - WNBAOct 9, 7:30 PMAtlanta Dream85
New York Liberty83WNBA · Oct 9, 7:30 PMNY61%✗✗ Lost - WNBAOct 7, 9:30 PMLas Vegas Aces81Golden State Valkyries83WNBA · Oct 7, 9:30 PMGS52%✓✓ Won
- WNBAOct 7, 7:30 PMNew York Liberty98Atlanta Dream101WNBA · Oct 7, 7:30 PMATL54%✓✓ Won
- WNBAOct 4, 4:00 PMLas Vegas Aces60Golden State Valkyries71WNBA · Oct 4, 4:00 PMLV50%✗✗ Lost
- WNBAOct 4, 2:00 PMNew York Liberty82Atlanta Dream92WNBA · Oct 4, 2:00 PMATL61%✓✓ Won
- WNBAOct 2, 9:00 PM
Dallas Wings73Golden State Valkyries77WNBA · Oct 2, 9:00 PMGS76%✓✓ Won - WNBAOct 1, 9:00 PM
Indiana Fever83Las Vegas Aces94WNBA · Oct 1, 9:00 PMLV64%✓✓ Won - WNBASep 30, 9:00 PMGolden State Valkyries100Dallas Wings108WNBA · Sep 30, 9:00 PMGS62%✗✗ Lost
- WNBASep 30, 7:00 PMAtlanta Dream93
Washington Mystics75WNBA · Sep 30, 7:00 PMATL58%✓✓ Won - WNBASep 29, 8:30 PM
Minnesota Lynx71New York Liberty87WNBA · Sep 29, 8:30 PMMIN60%✗✗ Lost - WNBASep 29, 6:30 PMLas Vegas Aces89Indiana Fever99WNBA · Sep 29, 6:30 PMIND52%✓✓ Won
- WNBASep 27, 9:00 PMDallas Wings80Golden State Valkyries104WNBA · Sep 27, 9:00 PMGS73%✓✓ Won
- WNBASep 27, 7:00 PMWashington Mystics77Atlanta Dream92WNBA · Sep 27, 7:00 PMATL65%✓✓ Won
- WNBASep 27, 4:00 PMIndiana Fever85Las Vegas Aces102WNBA · Sep 27, 4:00 PMLV57%✓✓ Won
- WNBASep 27, 2:00 PMNew York Liberty91Minnesota Lynx75WNBA · Sep 27, 2:00 PMMIN70%✗✗ Lost
- WNBASep 24, 10:00 PMGolden State Valkyries76
Los Angeles Sparks75WNBA · Sep 24, 10:00 PMGS78%✓✓ Won - WNBASep 24, 10:00 PMLas Vegas Aces100
Phoenix Mercury82WNBA · Sep 24, 10:00 PMLV67%✓✓ Won - WNBASep 24, 8:00 PMIndiana Fever66Minnesota Lynx86WNBA · Sep 24, 8:00 PMMIN56%✓✓ Won
- WNBASep 24, 7:30 PM
Chicago Sky93Washington Mystics101WNBA · Sep 24, 7:30 PMWSH84%✓✓ Won - WNBASep 24, 7:00 PM
Toronto Tempo81
Connecticut Sun95WNBA · Sep 24, 7:00 PMCON66%✓✓ Won - WNBASep 23, 10:00 PMDallas Wings103
Seattle Storm91WNBA · Sep 23, 10:00 PMDAL78%✓✓ Won - WNBASep 23, 8:00 PMAtlanta Dream83New York Liberty65WNBA · Sep 23, 8:00 PMNY54%✗✗ Lost
- WNBASep 22, 10:00 PMLos Angeles Sparks79Las Vegas Aces89WNBA · Sep 22, 10:00 PMLV79%✓✓ Won
- WNBASep 22, 10:00 PMGolden State Valkyries82
Portland Fire90WNBA · Sep 22, 10:00 PMGS82%✗✗ Lost - WNBASep 22, 8:00 PMMinnesota Lynx77Indiana Fever96WNBA · Sep 22, 8:00 PMIND55%✓✓ Won
- WNBASep 22, 8:00 PMToronto Tempo85Chicago Sky97WNBA · Sep 22, 8:00 PMCHI73%✓✓ Won
- WNBASep 22, 7:30 PMConnecticut Sun69Washington Mystics79WNBA · Sep 22, 7:30 PMWSH89%✓✓ Won
When it said 70%, did it win 70%?
live and backtest
Each lane is a confidence band. Calibrated means the dot lands in its gray band; the bar shows luck's range.
Yes so far: all 2 bands with enough picks landed where they said, within luck's range.
- Said50–60%64%9 of 14
- Said60–70%58%7 of 12
- Said70–80%100%6 of 6
- Said80–100%67%2 of 3
Live picks, locked before the start. Backtest: walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2020–26, not in the record. Lanes with fewer than 10 graded picks are faded.
Expected vs actual winners
35 picks
The dashed line is the wins its own probabilities expected, shaded for luck's 90% band. Solid is what happened.
Dotted line, pick 15: the method changed. Before it the calls were the model alone; after it a priced game’s number follows the market’s price, so the stretches are not the same product.
The solid line ends inside the shaded band: the record is where honest probabilities would put it.
Show as a table
| After pick | Date | Won | Expected | 90% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sep 22 | 4 | 3.0 | 1.6–4.3 |
| 9 | Sep 24 | 7 | 6.6 | 4.5–8.7 |
| 13 | Sep 27 | 10 | 9.3 | 6.7–11.9 |
| 18 | Sep 29 | 14 | 12.4 | 9.2–15.5 |
| 22 | Oct 2 | 17 | 15.0 | 11.5–18.5 |
| 26 | Oct 7 | 20 | 17.2 | 13.3–21.0 |
| 31 | Oct 21 | 22 | 20.1 | 15.8–24.4 |
| 35 | Oct 31 | 24 | 22.4 | 17.8–27.0 |
By method and the backtest
How the record splits by how the call was made, and the backtest, which is never part of the record.
Model alone, before the call followed the market: 12–3 (15 picks). Built on the market's price since: 12–8 (20 picks). Different games and different stretches of the season, so the two do not compare directly.
Backtest, not in the record: 67.3% of 1,642 games (walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2020–26).
Picks grade as each game goes final. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.