Paris Moran vs Marcos Degli Prediction · Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 7, Sep 22, 2026
Fight dataModel pick: Marcos Degli (64%), locked before the start; Marcos Degli won (graded a hit).
The model's call
Locked before the fightWhere a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.
- Result
- Marcos Degli
- By submission in round 3
- Right at this confidence
- 66%
- Won 35 of 53 called at 60–70%
How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.
The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.
The model's chance of each ending. The books haven't posted method or round prices for this bout yet, so there is nothing to set beside it. Tap a cell for its fair price.
The model's chance the fight is still going.
10-0 in the last 10. 9 of 10 wins inside the distance.
- WKO/TKO · R1LFA 225: Degli vs. AguiarJan 2026
- WKO/TKO · R3LFA 212: Degli vs. SeverinoJul 2025
- WKO/TKO · R2LFA 201: Conceicao vs. SilvaFeb 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1LFA 187: Brazil vs. Latin AmericaJul 2024
- WDecisionLFA 171: Neves vs. CunhaNov 2023
8-2 in the last 10. 4 of 8 wins inside the distance; 1 of 2 losses were finishes.
- WDecisionFury Fighting Championship 119May 2026
- WKO/TKO · R3Fury Fighting Championship 113Jan 2026
- LDecisionFury Fighting Championship 107Aug 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1Fury Fighting Championship 97Oct 2024
- WSubmission · R2Fury Fighting Championship 91Jun 2024
6 of 20 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 29% that it goes the distance. History, not a forecast.
How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.
No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Degli clear at 72%. Striking volume is near even (2.3 vs 2.7 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Degli is most dangerous early — 5 of 12 tracked wins ended in the first round. Degli's most likely path is by KO/TKO (37%), and the fight goes the distance 29% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.