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Model pick: Merab Dvalishvili (52%), locked before the start; Petr Yan won (graded a miss).
The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.
The model's chance of each ending. The books haven't posted method or round prices for this bout yet, so there is nothing to set beside it. Tap a cell for its fair price.
The model's chance the fight is still going.
Oldest to newest. Above the line: won; below: lost. Filled: ended early (K = KO/TKO, S = submission, then the round). Outline D: went to the judges. Tap a tile for the fight.
16 of 20 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 82% that it goes the distance. History, not a forecast.
No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Yan narrow at 54%. Expect Dvalishvili to chase the takedown (5.1/15 min at 32%) while Yan tries to keep it standing behind 87% takedown defense. Yan tends to settle in for the long haul — 10 of 13 tracked fights reached the judges. Yan's most likely path is on the scorecards (49%), and the fight goes the distance 82% of the time.
Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
