Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov

8:00 PM ET· scheduled
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Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Ateba Gautierby DEC
77% to win · 43% that it’s by DEC · 59% this goes the distance
Model fair price -333
Probetrics fight model
Roman Kopylov
23% +333
Ateba Gautier
77% -333
How it ends
Kopylov by KO/TKO
6.5%
fair +1438
Kopylov by SUB
1.2%
fair +7922
Kopylov by DEC
15.4%
fair +551
Gautier by KO/TKO
26.2%
fair +282
Gautier by SUB
7.4%
fair +1260
Gautier by DEC
43.4%
fair +131

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R122.3%fair +349
Ends in R212.3%fair +716
Ends in R36.7%fair +1383
Goes distance58.7%fair -142
How this fight plays out

The model makes Gautier a clear 77% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.5 vs 4.3 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Gautier is most dangerous early — 7 of 11 tracked wins ended in the first round. Gautier's most likely path is on the scorecards (43%), and the fight goes the distance 59% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.