Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Marwan Rahiki vs Tommy McMillen

5:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Tommy McMillenby KO/TKO58% to win · closed -155
Result: Tommy McMillen by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Tommy McMillen
60% -149
Marwan Rahiki
40% +149
How it ends
McMillen by KO/TKO
20.5%
fair +388
McMillen by SUB
13.3%
fair +651
McMillen by DEC
26.0%
fair +284
Rahiki by KO/TKO
23.8%
fair +321
Rahiki by SUB
6.8%
fair +1381
Rahiki by DEC
9.6%
fair +937

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R134.7%fair +188
Ends in R219.1%fair +424
Ends in R310.5%fair +852
Goes distance35.7%fair +180
How this fight plays out

The model makes McMillen a solid 60% favorite. On the feet, McMillen sets the tempo — 10.6 significant strikes a minute to 6.2 — so Rahiki needs moments, not volume. McMillen is most dangerous early — 9 of 12 tracked wins ended in the first round. McMillen's most likely path is on the scorecards (26%), and the fight goes the distance 36% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.