Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias

5:30 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Lucas Fernandoby KO/TKO63% to win · closed -280
Result: Lucas Fernando by KO/TKO in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Rafael Tobias
37% +173
Lucas Fernando
63% -173
How it ends
Tobias by KO/TKO
10.8%
fair +823
Tobias by SUB
6.1%
fair +1545
Tobias by DEC
19.7%
fair +408
Fernando by KO/TKO
48.9%
fair +105
Fernando by SUB
2.8%
fair +3510
Fernando by DEC
11.7%
fair +752

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R137.0%fair +170
Ends in R220.4%fair +391
Ends in R311.2%fair +793
Goes distance31.4%fair +218
How this fight plays out

The model makes Fernando a solid 63% favorite. On the feet, Fernando sets the tempo — 3.9 significant strikes a minute to 2.8 — so Tobias needs moments, not volume. Fernando is most dangerous early — 4 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Fernando's most likely path is by KO/TKO (49%), and the fight goes the distance 31% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.