Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann

12:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Mario Pintoby KO/TKO75% to win · closed -340
Result: Mario Pinto by KO/TKO in Round 2 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Ryan Spann
24% +309
Mario Pinto
76% -309
How it ends
Spann by KO/TKO
9.8%
fair +921
Spann by SUB
12.2%
fair +718
Spann by DEC
2.4%
fair +3987
Pinto by KO/TKO
55.3%
fair -124
Pinto by SUB
6.0%
fair +1579
Pinto by DEC
14.2%
fair +603

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R145.0%fair +122
Ends in R224.7%fair +304
Ends in R313.6%fair +635
Goes distance16.7%fair +500
How this fight plays out

The model makes Pinto a clear 76% favorite. Striking volume is near even (3.2 vs 3.3 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Spann is most dangerous early — 5 of 6 tracked wins ended in the first round. Pinto's most likely path is by KO/TKO (55%), and the fight goes the distance 17% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.