Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Brendson Ribeiro vs Magomed Tuchalov

9:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Magomed Tuchalovby KO/TKO80% to win · closed -733
Result: Magomed Tuchalov by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Magomed Tuchalov
80% -392
Brendson Ribeiro
20% +392
How it ends
Tuchalov by KO/TKO
39.4%
fair +154
Tuchalov by SUB
27.4%
fair +265
Tuchalov by DEC
12.9%
fair +677
Ribeiro by KO/TKO
2.7%
fair +3562
Ribeiro by SUB
8.6%
fair +1060
Ribeiro by DEC
9.0%
fair +1015

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R142.2%fair +137
Ends in R223.2%fair +331
Ends in R312.8%fair +683
Goes distance21.8%fair +358
How this fight plays out

The model makes Tuchalov a clear 80% favorite. Expect Tuchalov to chase the takedown (4.7/15 min at 57%) while Ribeiro tries to keep it standing behind 32% takedown defense. Tuchalov is most dangerous early — 4 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Tuchalov's most likely path is by KO/TKO (39%), and the fight goes the distance 22% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.