Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze

8:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Reinier de Ridderby DEC67% to win · closed -370
Result: Reinier de Ridder by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Roman Dolidze
32% +211
Reinier de Ridder
68% -211
How it ends
Dolidze by KO/TKO
16.4%
fair +508
Dolidze by SUB
1.2%
fair +8059
Dolidze by DEC
14.4%
fair +592
Ridder by KO/TKO
17.8%
fair +462
Ridder by SUB
13.8%
fair +627
Ridder by DEC
36.3%
fair +175

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R126.6%fair +276
Ends in R214.6%fair +584
Ends in R38.0%fair +1144
Goes distance50.8%fair -103
How this fight plays out

The model makes Ridder a solid 68% favorite. Expect Ridder to chase the takedown (2.4/15 min at 29%) while Dolidze tries to keep it standing behind 29% takedown defense. Ridder is most dangerous early — 4 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Ridder's most likely path is on the scorecards (36%), and the fight goes the distance 51% of the time. The live danger for Ridder: 53% of Dolidze's wins come by knockout and 75% of Ridder's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.