Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Christian Leroy Duncan vs Jared Cannonier

8:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Christian Leroy Duncanby KO/TKO76% to win · closed -303
Result: Christian Leroy Duncan by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Jared Cannonier
20% +405
Christian Leroy Duncan
80% -405
How it ends
Cannonier by KO/TKO
6.8%
fair +1376
Cannonier by SUB
0.8%
fair +12117
Cannonier by DEC
12.2%
fair +719
Duncan by KO/TKO
29.5%
fair +239
Duncan by SUB
2.9%
fair +3330
Duncan by DEC
47.8%
fair +109

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R121.6%fair +363
Ends in R211.9%fair +741
Ends in R36.5%fair +1430
Goes distance60.0%fair -150
How this fight plays out

The model makes Duncan a clear 80% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.4 vs 4.4 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Cannonier tends to settle in for the long haul — 8 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Duncan's most likely path is on the scorecards (48%), and the fight goes the distance 60% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.