Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Gilbert Urbina vs Vlasto Čepo

1:00 PM ET· final
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Vlasto Čepoby KO/TKO66% to win · closed -300
Result: Gilbert Urbina by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Vlasto Čepo
42% +140
Gilbert Urbina
58% -140
How it ends
Čepo by KO/TKO
35.3%
fair +183
Čepo by SUB
2.2%
fair +4475
Čepo by DEC
4.2%
fair +2300
Urbina by KO/TKO
47.2%
fair +112
Urbina by SUB
5.3%
fair +1801
Urbina by DEC
5.8%
fair +1614

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R148.6%fair +106
Ends in R226.7%fair +274
Ends in R314.7%fair +580
Goes distance10.0%fair +900
How this fight plays out

The model makes Urbina a solid 58% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.3 vs 3.5 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Urbina is most dangerous early — 3 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Urbina's most likely path is by KO/TKO (47%), and the fight goes the distance 10% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Urbina: 71% of Čepo's wins come by knockout and 60% of Urbina's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.