Ananias Mulumba vs Tom Pagliarulo
7:00 PM ET· final“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Pagliarulo a solid 64% favorite. Expect Pagliarulo to chase the takedown (2.3/15 min at 38%) while Mulumba tries to keep it standing behind 67% takedown defense. Pagliarulo is most dangerous early — 8 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Pagliarulo's most likely path is by KO/TKO (50%), and the fight goes the distance 18% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Pagliarulo: Mulumba finishes 50% of wins by submission and Pagliarulo has been submitted in 50% of losses.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.