College Basketball · Track record
College Basketball: every call, graded
Winner picks only: locked before tipoff, graded after the final, misses included. How the model is tested →
About this page
Winner picks only: locked before tipoff, graded after the final, misses included. How the model is tested →
Winners calledOnly picks locked before the start count. A pick made later, or priced after the fact, never enters it.
Locked before the start, graded afterNo graded picks yet: the first locked game grades after it goes final.Backtest, not in the record: 71.2% of 31,827 games (walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2020–25).
When it said 70%, did it win 70%?Each lane is a confidence band. Calibrated means the dot lands in its gray band; the bar shows luck's range.
backtest
- Said 50–60%backtest 53.7% of 7,414
- Said 60–70%backtest 62.7% of 7,344
- Said 70–80%backtest 73.2% of 6,976
- Said 80–90%backtest 84.7% of 5,985
- Said 90–100%backtest 95.2% of 4,108
The band it statedBacktest win rate
Backtest: walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2020–25, not in the record.
On the board
No open picks: the next games lock before tipoff. Each one appears here, with its result, the moment it is graded.
The open picks, with the side and the probability, are part of Pro. See Pro · The record
Picks grade as each game goes final. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.