Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Saygid Izagakhmaev vs Abubakar Vagaev

12:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Abubakar Vagaevby DEC51% to win · closed -182
Result: Abubakar Vagaev by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Abubakar Vagaev
49% +104
Saygid Izagakhmaev
51% -104
How it ends
Vagaev by KO/TKO
2.5%
fair +3838
Vagaev by SUB
2.3%
fair +4327
Vagaev by DEC
44.2%
fair +126
Izagakhmaev by KO/TKO
23.2%
fair +331
Izagakhmaev by SUB
10.8%
fair +826
Izagakhmaev by DEC
17.0%
fair +489

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R120.9%fair +378
Ends in R211.5%fair +769
Ends in R36.3%fair +1479
Goes distance61.2%fair -158
How this fight plays out

The model makes Izagakhmaev a narrow 51% favorite. Striking volume is near even (3.0 vs 2.6 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Vagaev tends to settle in for the long haul — 10 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Izagakhmaev's most likely path is by KO/TKO (23%), and the fight goes the distance 61% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.