Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan

6:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Denise Gomesby DEC58% to win · closed +133
Result: Denise Gomes by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Yan Xiaonan
33% +201
Denise Gomes
67% -201
How it ends
Xiaonan by KO/TKO
9.9%
fair +906
Xiaonan by SUB
1.2%
fair +8341
Xiaonan by DEC
22.1%
fair +352
Gomes by KO/TKO
20.3%
fair +392
Gomes by SUB
4.7%
fair +2030
Gomes by DEC
41.7%
fair +140

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R119.5%fair +412
Ends in R210.7%fair +832
Ends in R35.9%fair +1594
Goes distance63.8%fair -177
How this fight plays out

The model makes Gomes a solid 67% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.5 vs 4.4 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Xiaonan tends to settle in for the long haul — 9 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Gomes's most likely path is on the scorecards (42%), and the fight goes the distance 64% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.