Damian Piwowarczyk vs Emilio Quissua Prediction · Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 7, Sep 22, 2026
Fight dataModel pick: Emilio Quissua (55%), locked before the start; Damian Piwowarczyk won (graded a miss).
The model's call
Locked before the fightWhere a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.
- Result
- Damian Piwowarczyk
- By KO/TKO in round 1
- Right at this confidence
- 62%
- Won 41 of 66 called at 50–60%
How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.
The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.
The model's chance of each ending. The books haven't posted method or round prices for this bout yet, so there is nothing to set beside it. Tap a cell for its fair price.
The model's chance the fight is still going.
8-0 in the last 8. 5 of 8 wins inside the distance.
- WKO/TKO · R1OKTAGON 83: Samsonidse vs. MachaevJan 2026
- WKO/TKO · R1OKTAGON 75: Palokaj vs. BatfalskySep 2025
- WDecisionUAE Warriors 57Jan 2025
- WDecisionNFC Fight Night: The Cage MMAJul 2023
- WKO/TKO · R1UAE Warriors 32: Africa 3Sep 2022
6-4 in the last 10. 6 of 6 wins inside the distance; 2 of 4 losses were finishes.
- WKO/TKO · R2KSW 116: Bartosiński vs. FleminasMar 2026
- WSubmission · R1KSW 103: Brichta vs. CharzewskiJun 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1KSW 103: Brichta vs. CharzewskiFeb 2025
- LSubmission · R1KSW 98: Paczuski vs. ZerhouniSep 2024
- WKO/TKO · R1KSW Epic: Khalidov vs. AdamekFeb 2024
5 of 18 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 23% that it goes the distance. History, not a forecast.
How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.
No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Piwowarczyk narrow at 57%. Striking volume is near even (4.9 vs 5.0 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Piwowarczyk is most dangerous early — 6 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Piwowarczyk's most likely path is by KO/TKO (44%), and the fight goes the distance 23% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.