Callum Connor vs Piero Guaylupo Prediction · Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 7, Sep 22, 2026
Fight dataModel pick: Piero Guaylupo (53%), locked before the start; Piero Guaylupo won (graded a hit).
The model's call
Locked before the fightWhere a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.
- Result
- Piero Guaylupo
- By decision in round 3
- Right at this confidence
- 62%
- Won 41 of 66 called at 50–60%
How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.
The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.
The model's chance of each ending. The books haven't posted method or round prices for this bout yet, so there is nothing to set beside it. Tap a cell for its fair price.
The model's chance the fight is still going.
10-0 in the last 10. 10 of 10 wins inside the distance.
- WKO/TKO · R4Inka FC 57: Guaylupo vs. MilerMay 2026
- WKO/TKO · R2300 Sparta 41: Guaylupo vs. Da SilvaAug 2025
- WKO/TKO · R3300 Sparta 39: Guaylupo vs. LimaMar 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1300 Sparta 38: Guaylupo vs. RonildoDec 2024
- WKO/TKO · R2Inka FC 45: Navarro vs. SilvaAug 2024
8-0 in the last 8. 6 of 8 wins inside the distance.
- WKO/TKO · R2Apex Combat Championship 1Apr 2026
- WDecisionFCC 41: Full Contact Contender 41Mar 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1FCC 40: Full Contact Contender 40Nov 2024
- WDecisionFCC 38: Full Contact Contender 38Jun 2024
- WKO/TKO · R1FCC 37: Full Contact Contender 37Mar 2024
2 of 18 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 46% that it goes the distance. History, not a forecast.
How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.
No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Connor narrow at 52%. On the feet, Connor sets the tempo — 13.1 significant strikes a minute to 10.9 — so Guaylupo needs moments, not volume. Connor is most dangerous early — 5 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Connor's most likely path is on the scorecards (23%), and the fight goes the distance 46% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.