Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Kai Kamaka vs Luke Riley

7:15 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Luke Rileyby KO/TKO64% to win · closed -220
Result: Luke Riley by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Luke Riley
76% -314
Kai Kamaka
24% +314
How it ends
Riley by KO/TKO
45.3%
fair +121
Riley by SUB
2.9%
fair +3370
Riley by DEC
27.6%
fair +262
Kamaka by KO/TKO
10.0%
fair +899
Kamaka by SUB
1.4%
fair +6980
Kamaka by DEC
12.7%
fair +685

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R132.2%fair +211
Ends in R217.7%fair +465
Ends in R39.7%fair +927
Goes distance40.4%fair +148
How this fight plays out

The model makes Riley a clear 76% favorite. Striking volume is near even (5.7 vs 5.8 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Kamaka tends to settle in for the long haul — 8 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Riley's most likely path is by KO/TKO (45%), and the fight goes the distance 40% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.