Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Dione Barbosa vs Anna Melisano

5:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Anna Melisanoby DEC59% to win · closed +488
Result: Dione Barbosa by SUB in Round 1 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Anna Melisano
38% +160
Dione Barbosa
62% -160
How it ends
Melisano by KO/TKO
11.6%
fair +760
Melisano by SUB
4.6%
fair +2095
Melisano by DEC
22.3%
fair +349
Barbosa by KO/TKO
3.8%
fair +2519
Barbosa by SUB
37.7%
fair +165
Barbosa by DEC
20.0%
fair +399

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R131.1%fair +221
Ends in R217.1%fair +484
Ends in R39.4%fair +961
Goes distance42.3%fair +136
How this fight plays out

The model makes Barbosa a solid 62% favorite. Expect Barbosa to chase the takedown (2.3/15 min at 44%) while Melisano tries to keep it standing behind 50% takedown defense. Barbosa tends to settle in for the long haul — 8 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Barbosa's most likely path is by submission (38%), and the fight goes the distance 42% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.