Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Bogdan Grad vs Dennis Buzukja

10:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Bogdan Gradby DEC60% to win · closed -178
Result: Bogdan Grad by SUB in Round 2 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Dennis Buzukja
36% +175
Bogdan Grad
64% -175
How it ends
Buzukja by KO/TKO
31.2%
fair +221
Buzukja by SUB
1.6%
fair +6228
Buzukja by DEC
3.6%
fair +2648
Grad by KO/TKO
10.2%
fair +879
Grad by SUB
30.2%
fair +232
Grad by DEC
23.2%
fair +330

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R139.5%fair +153
Ends in R221.7%fair +361
Ends in R311.9%fair +737
Goes distance26.9%fair +272
How this fight plays out

The model makes Grad a solid 64% favorite. Expect Grad to chase the takedown (3.9/15 min at 39%) while Buzukja tries to keep it standing behind 71% takedown defense. Grad's most likely path is by submission (30%), and the fight goes the distance 27% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.