Ailin Perez vs Norma Dumont
8:00 PM ET· scheduledBooks price Dumont at 43% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +9.9% on PerezEdge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Perez a solid 66% favorite, more confident than the market's 57%. Expect Perez to chase the takedown (4.4/15 min at 49%) while Dumont tries to keep it standing behind 67% takedown defense. Dumont tends to settle in for the long haul — 11 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Perez's most likely path is on the scorecards (50%), and the fight goes the distance 78% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.