Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos
8:00 PM ET· scheduledBooks price Barcelos at 41% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +3.4% on Jr.Edge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Jr. a solid 62% favorite, in line with the betting market. Expect Jr. to chase the takedown (5.4/15 min at 55%) while Barcelos tries to keep it standing behind 86% takedown defense. Barcelos tends to settle in for the long haul — 10 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Jr.'s most likely path is on the scorecards (40%), and the fight goes the distance 70% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.