Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus

9:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Mansur Abdul-Malikby KO/TKO69% to win · closed -650
Result: Dustin Stoltzfus by SUB in Round 2 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Dustin Stoltzfus
45% +123
Mansur Abdul-Malik
55% -123
How it ends
Stoltzfus by KO/TKO
15.5%
fair +543
Stoltzfus by SUB
24.7%
fair +304
Stoltzfus by DEC
4.5%
fair +2135
Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO
27.9%
fair +258
Abdul-Malik by SUB
13.8%
fair +623
Abdul-Malik by DEC
13.5%
fair +640

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R144.3%fair +126
Ends in R224.3%fair +311
Ends in R313.4%fair +647
Goes distance18.0%fair +456
How this fight plays out

The model makes Abdul-Malik a narrow 55% favorite. Striking volume is near even (3.5 vs 3.5 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Abdul-Malik is most dangerous early — 7 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Abdul-Malik's most likely path is by KO/TKO (28%), and the fight goes the distance 18% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Abdul-Malik: Stoltzfus finishes 41% of wins by submission and Abdul-Malik has been submitted in 50% of losses.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.