Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Matthieu Letho Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias

12:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Luis Felipe Diasby KO/TKO57% to win · closed +113
Result: Matthieu Letho Duclos by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Luis Felipe Dias
58% -138
Matthieu Letho Duclos
42% +138
How it ends
Dias by KO/TKO
27.5%
fair +264
Dias by SUB
25.7%
fair +290
Dias by DEC
4.9%
fair +1962
Duclos by KO/TKO
30.3%
fair +230
Duclos by SUB
3.1%
fair +3114
Duclos by DEC
8.6%
fair +1066

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R146.7%fair +114
Ends in R225.7%fair +289
Ends in R314.1%fair +607
Goes distance13.4%fair +645
How this fight plays out

The model makes Dias a narrow 58% favorite. Expect Dias to chase the takedown (2.9/15 min at 57%) while Duclos tries to keep it standing behind 100% takedown defense. Dias is most dangerous early — 5 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Dias's most likely path is by KO/TKO (27%), and the fight goes the distance 13% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Dias: 82% of Duclos's wins come by knockout and 40% of Dias's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.