Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Mario Bautista vs Cory Sandhagen

10:15 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Mario Bautistaby DEC60% to win · closed +125
Result: Mario Bautista by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Cory Sandhagen
33% +201
Mario Bautista
67% -201
How it ends
Sandhagen by KO/TKO
11.4%
fair +779
Sandhagen by SUB
2.1%
fair +4595
Sandhagen by DEC
19.8%
fair +406
Bautista by KO/TKO
1.3%
fair +7391
Bautista by SUB
14.0%
fair +614
Bautista by DEC
51.4%
fair -106

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R115.6%fair +542
Ends in R28.6%fair +1068
Ends in R34.7%fair +2024
Goes distance71.2%fair -247
How this fight plays out

The model makes Bautista a solid 67% favorite. Expect Bautista to chase the takedown (2.7/15 min at 39%) while Sandhagen tries to keep it standing behind 61% takedown defense. Bautista's most likely path is on the scorecards (51%), and the fight goes the distance 71% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.